284 FXUS64 KBRO 240839 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 339 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 500mb ridge strengthens through Thursday with the atmosphere over South Texas continuing to dry-out. Mid-Upper northwest subsidence flow east of the ridge axis persist over our region with pwats to bottom out around 1.25 inches (near or below the 25th percentile) and 850-300mb mean RH in the 25- 35 percent range. Model guidance indicates pops near zero with just a few clouds today, tonight and Thursday. Plenty of sun to warm up temperatures and with 500mb heights rising through tomorrow temperatures are likely to climb a degree or two above guidance consensus and late May averages with mid to upper 90s for inland areas. Surface winds to remain unusual light as the pressure gradient remains relaxed with a broad surface ridge over the Western Gulf and a stationary front along the northern Gulf coast. The fog potential seems to be waning with as SREF showing probability of fog below 3 miles 20 percent or lower for the RGV and 40-50 percent for the northern ranchlands late tonight/Thursday morning. This is likely due to to some residual overnight winds. Any fog that forms will likely be shallow and short-lived. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 The Omega block ridge across the northern Plains works east into the weekend into more of a Rex block pattern over the persistent Southeast low. This will weaken the subtropical ridge late this weekend and turn mid-level flow more zonal into next week across Deep South Texas. Dry air aloft likely wins out until at least Sunday night, keeping the CWA dry with near to slightly below seasonal temperatures expected through the period. A shortwave swings into the state late Sunday into Tuesday, bringing back a chance of rain, with most model guidance keeping POPs below 20 percent at this time. Certainly nothing to cancel any holiday weekend plans over. The risk of life-threatening rip currents may increase this weekend into early next week and a Rip Current Statement or at the very least enhanced rip current safety messaging may be needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail tonight through Wednesday with light southeasterly wind persisting. Will be monitoring for fog potential around sunrise given the clear skies and light winds however, probabilities are low and confidence is waning as winds may be elevated just enough to limit the fog formation. In any case, if patchy shallow fog forms expect MVFR vsby for only an hour or two either side of sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Today through Thursday...A relaxed pressure gradient persist across the Lower Texas coast as a stationary front resides along the northern Gulf coast today with broad high pressure dominating the Gulf. Light to gentle southeast wind and nearly flat seas to persist through Thursday. Late afternoon sea breeze may enhance the winds with a brief period of winds nearing 15 knots. Shower and thunderstorm chances are near zero. Thursday Night through Tuesday...Persistent light southeasterly onshore flow will maintain low to moderate seas through the long term period. Long period swell may increase over the holiday weekend, building seas toward 3 to 4 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 73 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 94 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 71 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 76 85 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...59-GB LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...59