013 FNUS55 KTWC 172202 FWFTWC Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Arizona National Weather Service Tucson AZ 302 PM MST Wed May 17 2023 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 20-FOOT WIND FORECAST OF 'LIGHT WINDS' INDICATES MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ .DISCUSSION... Moisture will remain over most of the area through Friday with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected. A couple of dry lightning strikes can't be ruled out but chances remain low. Storm outflow winds greater than 40 mph are possible with any thunderstorms. Outside of storm activity, winds will remain light following normal diurnal direction patterns into the weekend. South to southwest flow will gradually develop Friday through the weekend which will slowly force moisture out of the area this weekend onward with a diminishing threat of showers and storms each day. By the weekend, generally only the White mountains are expected to have storms. Minimum RH values will drop to 10-15 percent across the lower elevations this weekend with even single digit values early next week. 20-foot winds will remain less than 15 mph. AZZ150-181430- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150 Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County- Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC- 302 PM MST Wed May 17 2023 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. * Min Temperature..........64 to 74 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............37 to 47 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........10 pct. * LAL......................1. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........84 to 94 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 degs. * Min Humidity.............20 to 30 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 6 to 10 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest around 10 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North around 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip.........40 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............9686 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........South 8 knots shifting to the west in the afternoon. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (125918 knot-ft). .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 degs. * Max Humidity.............57 to 67 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 15 to 19 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 15 mph in the evening becoming light. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........East 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........30 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .FRIDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. * Max Temperature..........84 to 94 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............16 to 26 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..East around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southeast 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................1. * Haines Index.............4 or low. * Mixing Height............12727 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........Southeast 5 to 8 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (101816 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 88 to 98. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 10 to 20 pct. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 89 to 99. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 10 to 18 pct. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 70. Highs 90 to 100. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 8 to 15 pct. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 70. Highs 90 to 100. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 90 to 100. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 150 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LOCATION (2550 MSL) $$ AZZ151-181430- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151 Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to 5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County- Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County- Santa Cruz County-TDC- 302 PM MST Wed May 17 2023 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........57 to 67 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 2 to 5 degs. * Max Humidity.............49 to 59 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 14 to 18 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms and slight chance of showers. * Max Temperature..........77 to 87 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 degs. * Min Humidity.............24 to 34 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 4 to 8 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........60 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............10083 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........Southwest 7 to 14 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (141162 knot-ft). .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........52 to 62 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 degs. * Max Humidity.............69 to 79 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 21 to 25 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West around 10 mph shifting to the south after midnight. * Chance of Precip.........30 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .FRIDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........78 to 88 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............19 to 29 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southeast 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................2. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............12005 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........South 7 to 9 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (108045 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 62. Highs 82 to 92. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 12 to 22 pct. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 62. Highs 83 to 93. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 10 to 20 pct. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 84 to 94. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 7 to 16 pct. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 84 to 94. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 84 to 94. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 151 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE BUENOS AIRES N.W.R. LOCATION (3500 MSL) $$ AZZ152-181430- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152 Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to 5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation- Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC- 302 PM MST Wed May 17 2023 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........56 to 66 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 3 to 7 degs. * Max Humidity.............58 to 68 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 22 to 26 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 20 mph becoming south around 10 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 20 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip.........30 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........78 to 88 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 degs. * Min Humidity.............23 to 33 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........50 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............8994 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........West 9 to 14 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (125916 knot-ft). .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........53 to 63 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 degs. * Max Humidity.............69 to 79 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 9 to 13 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........30 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .FRIDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........78 to 88 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............21 to 31 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........South 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............11738 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........South 6 to 10 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (117380 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 81 to 91. South wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 15 to 25 pct. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 62. Highs 82 to 92. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 12 to 22 pct. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 83 to 93. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 7 to 17 pct. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 84 to 94. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 85 to 95. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 152 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE CHIRICAHUA N.M. LOCATION (5400 MSL) $$ AZZ153-181430- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153 Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County- White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF- Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC- 302 PM MST Wed May 17 2023 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........49 to 59 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............67 to 77 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 12 to 16 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 15 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip.........40 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........66 to 76 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............37 to 47 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 2 to 5 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........60 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............8091 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........Northwest 7 to 13 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (105183 knot-ft). .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........49 to 59 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............68 to 78 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........40 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............2 or very low. .FRIDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........65 to 75 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............36 to 46 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........East around 5 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip.........60 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............7618 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........South 5 to 11 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Very good (83798 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 48 to 58. Highs 68 to 78. East wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 27 to 37 pct. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 48 to 58. Highs 69 to 79. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 24 to 34 pct. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 48 to 58. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 17 to 27 pct. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 48 to 58. Highs 72 to 82. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 48 to 58. Highs 73 to 83. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 153 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE POINT OF PINES LOCATION (6040 MSL) $$ AZZ154-181430- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154 Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC- 302 PM MST Wed May 17 2023 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........52 to 62 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 2 to 5 degs. * Max Humidity.............52 to 62 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 21 to 25 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 15 to 20 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 15 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........67 to 77 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 degs. * Min Humidity.............33 to 43 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........60 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............10138 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........West 11 to 14 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (126725 knot-ft). .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........49 to 59 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 degs. * Max Humidity.............66 to 76 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 9 to 13 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........West around 10 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. * Chance of Precip.........30 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............2 or very low. .FRIDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........67 to 77 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............25 to 35 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 5 to 9 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........South 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................2. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............12164 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........South 8 to 9 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (103394 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 50 to 60. Highs 70 to 80. South wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 19 to 29 pct. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 50 to 60. Highs 71 to 81. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 15 to 25 pct. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 50 to 60. Highs 73 to 83. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 10 to 20 pct. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 50 to 60. Highs 73 to 83. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 51 to 61. Highs 74 to 84. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 154 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ZONE $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson