431 FXUS63 KDLH 171732 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1232 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Summary: Today will be the last dry day before a cold front crosses with some rain relief from the recent dry conditions. Another dry day after a chilly/frosty morning with somewhat gusty winds across NE MN. With greenup still in process, the low RH's will pose a threat for fires to rapidly grow. Winds will not be very strong, but strong enough to cause any fires that do start to spread rapidly. Attention then turns to the main weather event of the 7 day forecast, a cold front that may bring a few non-severe thunderstorms and widespread rainfall of 0.25", but up to 0.75" in some locations - mainly parts of NW WI. PWATs with the incoming front will be a respectable 1.3", so definitely some moisture to work with, but lapse rates and instability is not that great hence the thunderstorm enhancement doesn't look too great though a nice LLJ will feed into the front which could help squeeze out some extra moisture. Upstairs, this front is being fueled by a nice and compact 500 mb shortwave that will arrive overhead Friday after the main cold front crosses Thursday. This will bring a cold air mass with 850 temps falling below 0C, so may have to watch out for more frost/freeze hazards heading into Friday morning, but for now have min T's only in the upper 30s, so just shy. An even colder air mass brushes the MN Arrowhead on Sunday into Monday which could also bring some frost. Generally a fairly benign wx pattern continues into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Smokey skies continue across the region this afternoon but VFR conditions continue as little to no near surface smoke is being observed. A cold front will move in from the west late this evening and spread some showers and thunderstorms throughout the region. Out ahead of this front there will be a strong low level jet that produces some LLWS at most of the terminals with winds sprinting out of the southwest. After the front moves through and the rain pushes east there is some concern of smoke mixing down to the surface. Current upstream observations in far western ND have seen smoke bring VIS down to IFR. This set of TAFs introduces this as well for INL and BRD. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Waves will approach SCA criteria near the Twin Ports today, so will need to keep an eye out for that as confidence is not great enough for an advisory attm. Winds will briefly touch small craft conditions through the weekend, but only here and there, so again sitting on issuing any headlines. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 62 46 65 43 / 0 20 90 60 INL 73 48 61 40 / 10 80 70 60 BRD 75 54 67 42 / 10 50 80 30 HYR 70 50 72 44 / 0 10 90 60 ASX 63 48 70 44 / 0 10 80 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Wolfe