533 FXUS61 KPHI 110131 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 931 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north through Thursday before shifting offshore Friday, providing fair weather and increasing temperatures through the end of the week. A cold front moving down from the north Friday night through Saturday will be accompanied by some scattered showers, then high pressure will briefly return into Sunday with more seasonable temperatures. Another system may impact the region Sunday night into Monday with an additional round of showers. High pressure and fair weather will return toward the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pleasant and tranquil weather will continue through Thursday as high pressure becomes centered overhead before beginning to push offshore later on Thursday. The result will be continued mostly clear skies and light winds. The sea breeze that developed along the coast earlier today is dissipating. Heading into daytime Thursday, winds will be a bit stronger and more consistently out of the west around 5 to 10 mph with the pressure gradient beginning to tighten as the west side of the high begins to approach the region. This tightening of the surface gradient will also likely (60% chance) prevent a sea breeze pushing inland as we saw on Wednesday. Otherwise, radiational cooling will drop temperatures into the upper 40s to low 50s before the sunshine tomorrow brings them right back up into the upper 70s to even low 80s (mainly in the I-95 urban corridor). && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure continues to move offshore Thursday night through Friday allowing a warm front to move through at the surface. This will result in the warming trend continuing into Friday with a SW flow and variable cloud cover. Generally expect highs Friday in the low to mid 80s except 70s near the coast and over the southern Poconos. Forecast models continue to come into better agreement indicating that a wave moving through will result in some showers affecting the area overnight Friday night into the first part of Saturday, especially south. Lift will also be aided by a cold front sweeping through at the surface. We have likely POPs (60 to 70 percent range) in the forecast for early Saturday near and south of the urban corridor with decreasing POPs farther north (40-50 percent range). There may also be a few thunderstorms but this threat should be confined to Delmarva. Otherwise, showers should diminish north to south through Saturday afternoon into the early evening in the wake of the front so the day should end dry for most. The clouds and showers will result in temperatures a bit cooler compared to Friday however it will be on the humid side until the frontal passage with dew points as high as the low to mid 60s over the southern half of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The latest forecast guidance continues to indicate that the front will push far enough south of the area to allow high pressure to build in for Sunday bringing the area cooler and drier conditions with at least partial sunshine. Expect highs mainly in the low to mid 70s except 60s near the coast (due to sea breezes) and over the Pocono Plateau. Looking ahead beyond this weekend, there is still some threat another wave pivoting around the trough over eastern Canada could bring the area some showers Sunday night into Monday. However chances for this have decreased with POPs now generally just in the 20 to 30 percent range for each of the periods Sunday night and Monday. Expect temperatures to be seasonable to start next week. Beyond this time, expect high pressure to generally be in control bringing mainly dry weather with warming temperatures for next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Tonight...Mainly VFR with winds becoming mainly out of the west around 5 knots or less. High confidence. Thursday...VFR with a few high clouds and otherwise clear skies. Winds west around 5-10 kts. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing clouds Friday. Winds light and variable Thursday night becoming southwest around 5-10 kts Friday. High confidence. Friday night through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, although scattered showers may introduce MVFR restrictions at times. Southwest winds 5- 10 kts becoming northwest on Saturday behind a cold front. Moderate confidence. Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. North winds 5-10 kts with gusts near 15-20 kts possible at times. High confidence. Sunday night through Monday...Next system could bring some showers and possible restrictions to MVFR but chances for this 20 to 30 percent so generally expect VFR will predominate. Northerly winds around 5 to 10 knots becoming westerly around 10 knots Monday. Low confidence. && .MARINE... No marine headlines expected through Thursday. Southerly winds increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas of 1 to 3 feet expected. Outlook... Generally expect conditions to stay below Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday night through Monday. But that said, there could be a period of northeast winds gusting 20-25 knots early Sunday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann NEAR TERM...AKL/Kruzdlo SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/Kruzdlo MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons