729 FXUS65 KPUB 070948 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 348 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 347 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023 Key Messages: 1)Critical Fire Weather conditions again this afternoon and evening for portions of southern Colorado. Currently...satellite imagery shows increasing mid and high clouds across western Colorado spreading eastward early this morning. A weak surface boundary has backed west across the Plains helping humidity values recover. Temperatures are cool, with 40s and 50s across the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis Valley. Today...expect another round of critical fire weather conditions for this afternoon and evening across much of southern Colorado. Red Flag Warnings are in place for the San Luis Valley, east into the I- 25 corridor. Gusty winds, near 35 mph and low humidity values near 10 percent are forecast for this afternoon and evening. The main question will be how far east the westerlies mix. Current model guidance keeps the strongest winds west of a line from near Colorado Springs, southeast to near Rocky Ford and Springfield. If the westerlies can mix further eastward, elevated fire weather conditions could be possible further east to near Lamar. We will continue to monitor the conditions into this afternoon, but currently think the going Red Flag highlights look good. An embedded upper wave in southwesterly flow aloft will move across north Central Colorado this afternoon. Weak instability along with the embedded wave may spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the La Garita Range, north across the Central Mountains this afternoon. A couple of storms may also be possible over Teller County and the Palmer Divide later this afternoon. Lightning and wind gusts to near 40 mph may be possible with stronger storms. Afternoon highs today will reach into the 70s to 80s across the Plains. Highs across the San Luis Valley will reach the 60s. Tonight...the upper wave will continue to lift northeast into the northern Plains allowing for any storms that do develop to quickly dissipate this evening. A more robust surface boundary will drop south across the Plains overnight, turning low level flow northeasterly. This will advect moisture back westward across the Plains, allowing humidity values to recover overnight. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s by morning across the Plains, and upper 20s to lower 30s for the San Luis Valley. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 347 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023 Key Messages: 1) Threat for critical fire weather conditions through mid week, mainly over the San Luis valley, southeast mountains and southern I25 corridor. 2) Chances for some strong convection, especially near the Kansas border, during mid week. .Monday...Weak high pressure develops behind the departing trough on Sunday, keeping weak upslope flow over the eastern plains for much of the day. The weak upslope would tend to keep winds ont he plains from the southeast with slightly higher humidities. Further west, the dry southwest flow aloft will likely bring critical fire weather conditions to the San Luis Valley. Currently looks as if there will be enough mixing for lower humidities over the eastern mountains and southern interstate 25 corridor. Issued a fire weather watch for these regions with the greatest chances for critical fire weather conditions in the San Luis Valley. With the southerly flow on the plains, there will be the chance for some high based convection during the afternoon over the Palmer Divide region. .Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft increases as a trough moves into southern California. At the surface, upslope flow increases over the plains of Colorado. There is a fair amount of low level moisture over the high plains which could be advected westward into Colorado. Currently, there is a chance that enough moisture will exist near the Kansas border for some stronger convection during the afternoon. The NBM has around 1000 J/kg of CAPE near KLAA and some of the models suggest the richer moisture making into the Colorado. Main factors for convection would be the strength of a cap as well as the lack of any disturbance. Current grids have isolated convection near the border, which looks good. However, will have to watch that any convection which develops could be strong with the higher CAPE and shear. SPC outlooks have the stronger convection in Kansas, which looks reasonable at this time. There may also be enough moisture for some convection along the Palmer Divide with the deeper upslope over northeast Colorado. Otherwise, critical fire weather conditions are possible with the best chances over the San Luis Valley, southeast mountains, and southern I25 corridor. .Wednesday and Thursday...Models are still struggling with the timing of the trough as the EC and GEM have a slower solution. General trends are to have the deeper moisture stay mostly north of the CWA. One area for increased chances of convection would be over the Palmer Divide westward in the mountains. Another area of concern will be near the Kansas border. A dry line/trough will likely develop over southeast Colorado and move eastward as the upper trough approaches. Depending on timing of the system, some stronger convection could develop along the dry line in eastern Colorado on Wednesday before moving eastward in Kansas. The faster GFS solution is more favorable for stronger convection with the forcing and dry line over southeast Colorado Wednesday afternoon and evening, while the slower EC has less favorable timing with best forcing overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Most of the convection will be out of the region Thursday with specifics depending on the speed of the trough. .Friday and Saturday...Not a lot of confidence in the specifics. With the upper low north to northeast of the region Friday, anticipate westerly flow over the region Friday. Depending on the speed of the trough, there could be enough instability for some daytime convection. On Saturday, ensembles and operational models suggest usplope flow develops bringing moisture westward into southeast Colorado. Broad upper low over the southwest could enhance lift. Details are difficult to define at this time, but it could be the start of a wetter period for southern Colorado. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 347 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023 KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with passing mid and high level clouds. Southwest winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts near 35 kts expected. Winds will decrease this evening. KCOS...VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the next 24 hours. A shower or thunderstorm may be possible this afternoon, which would lower CIGS and reduce VIS if one should move over the terminal. Outflow winds could also be gusty. At this time, confidence in occurrence is low. KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with passing mid and high clouds. Southwest winds could gust near 25 kts this afternoon. Winds will dissipate this evening. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-225-227>230-232-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...MOZLEY