608 
FXUS64 KBRO 061133 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
633 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023

(Today through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande 
Valley are expected to remain on the northwest periphery of 500 mb
high pressure centered roughly over the Bay of Campeche during 
the period. Dry weather is anticipated to result from this 
synoptic situation. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center 
keeps a Marginal Risk and even Slight Risk of severe weather well 
away from the BRO CWFA. Despite a healthy mix of clouds and sun, 
slightly above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures 
will occur. Breezy surface winds from the southeast will may help 
to make highs feel a little cooler in shady areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023

A series of upper level disturbances will move over the region 
Sunday night through late week. The combination of ample moisture in 
place and the passing mid to upper level disturbances, will lead to 
isolated to scattered convection Monday night into Thursday. More 
robust rain chances are possible Friday and Friday night as an upper 
low approaches from the west. Successive shifts will need to
monitor for the possibility that some of the convection moving
into the Rio Grande Valley from neighboring Mexico will be strong
to severe. Persistent low pressure across the Plains will support
moderate to breezy south to southeast winds each afternoon. Low 
temperatures each night will be in the low to mid 70s. Highs each 
afternoon will generally range from the upper 80s along the coast 
and beaches, low 90s across much of the Valley, and the mid to 
upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MVFR to VFR is still anticipated at the aerodromes through the
next 24 hours. Breezy winds today will only diminish to moderate 
levels tonight. No convection is forecast. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat May 6 2023

(Today through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast 
winds around 8 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas of 3 feet 
with a period of 6 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An enhanced pressure 
gradient will exist over the western Gulf of Mexico during the 
period. Moderate to breezy winds and moderate to slightly rough seas 
will prevail during the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution is 
likely to be needed, and Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out 
for Sunday, mainly for the Laguna Madre. 

Sunday night through Friday...Light to moderate southeasterly winds 
and moderate will prevail through the period. However, operators of 
small Craft may need to Exercise Caution, as slightly stronger winds 
and seas may develop at times. Isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will be possible through the period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  76  89  76 /  10   0   0  10 
HARLINGEN               94  74  93  75 /   0   0   0  10 
MCALLEN                 95  76  94  76 /   0  10   0  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY         99  75  98  75 /   0  10   0  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  76  82  76 /   0   0   0  10 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  74  88  75 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$