624 FXUS64 KCRP 011125 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 625 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023 Generally quiet weather continues through the short term period. We'll see a moderate to strong southerly flow today from the surface through 850mb, keeping surface moisture fairly low and allowing temperatures to get very warm west. Have forecast highs in the upper 90s in the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures east will be above normal, in the mid and upper 80s. Later in the day surface flow begins a shift more southeasterly and this will usher in more moisture which will also lead to increasing clouds tonight. Near the coast, expect low temperatures to occur early with some slight warming toward morning with the increasing moisture. Expect mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler as a result of the increasing moisture and cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023 Not much change from the previous forecast package. Weak mid-level ridging over South Texas from the Gulf of Mexico will persist through this weekend with a series of shortwaves passing through. Moisture gradually increases through the week with PWATs ranging 1.75-2.00" (90-99th percentile) Thursday through the weekend. This sufficient moisture combined with shortwaves will allow for mostly cloudy skies and 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday, with conditions most favorable during the day. Timing remains difficult to pinpoint due to the unorganized nature of this event not associated with a front, will likely depend on bands of positive vorticity advection aloft to initiate convection. Temperatures gradually warm into the weekend with highs on Friday and Saturday ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat indices approaching 105 over the Brush Country. Very warm dewpoints will limit lows in the low to mid 70s Thursday night through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023 LLWS is possible at ALI and COT for a few more hours this morning as a 35-40kt LLJ is in place. The rest of the day will feature VFR conditions and a moderate southeasterly flow. Clouds will increase tonight and expect MVFR CIGS to develop after midnight for most sites. Have just a tempo conditions west at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023 A weak to occasionally moderate south to southeasterly flow will continue for the rest of today through Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this week. Light to moderate southeasterly flow will continue into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 69 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 86 66 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 98 70 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 91 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 86 71 78 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 97 69 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 68 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 86 73 81 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...PH/83