311 FXUS63 KABR 280525 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 See updated aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 903 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Most all of the rain observed on radar currently is along and east of the James River, so have adjusted PoPs accordingly. Also, everything has been reduced to just showers with thunder having come to an end it appears. Still cannot rule out a few thundershowers across the southeast CWA over the next hour or two, but it appears things are winding down. As for winds, seeing advisory level speeds/gusts mainly along and west of the Missouri River. It's been tough thus far to get anything further east. If it were to happen east of the Missouri over to the James valley, it would likely be over the next few hours, as LAMP guidance shows peak winds in ABR generally from 04Z to 06Z. After looking at guidance/soundings/winds aloft, etc., it seems a bit more difficult to reach advisory speeds further east, but not out of the question. Will leave advisory in place for the time being. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Forecast challenges through Friday night include: 1. timing/areal coverage of showers and weak thunderstorms through this evening and lingering showers later tonight into Friday 2. strength of winds from late this afternoon through late tonight over central and north central South Dakota, over into a portion of northeast South Dakota At 2 PM CDT, skies were mostly cloudy, with a surface warm front situated from near Mobridge over to near Redfield. A cold front was analyzed from a surface low near Fort Yates ND extending southwest into the Black Hills and on back into Wyoming. Temperatures were generally in the upper 50s to 60s and for the most part, winds had a southerly component north/east of this warm frontal boundary. Between the cold front and warm front, temperatures were warming through the 60s, approaching 70 degrees in some spots and winds were more westerly. The regional 88D network indicated a mixture of WAA- forced rain/rain showers were working east-northeast throughout and east of the James River valley, while precipitation appeared to be more cellular in nature with a smattering of lightning flashes/strikes further west over the Missouri River valley and points west. For the rest of this afternoon into late this evening these wdly sct to nmrs showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop/persist across the forecast area, in response to the mid-level shortwaves working through the region. Any lingering showers should be clear of the CWA by mid-day Friday, with generally dry and cool (cooler than normal) conditions anticipated through the remainder of the short term forecast period. There is some scrutiny that needs applied to this cold front working through the CWA late this afternoon through tonight. 925hpa thermal progs depict something like ~8-10C degrees of cooling in 3 hours (or ~10-12C degrees of cooling in 6 hours), post-frontal, this afternoon through late this evening. The pressure change/tendency progs include ~6-8hpa of pressure rise in 3 hours (or ~10-13hpa or pressure rise in 6 hours) behind this cold fropa in tandem with the strong low level CAA. Models also show the pressure gradient tightening considerably by early this evening across the western half of the CWA. Opted to expand the wind advisory (strong/blustery/gusty winds only likely to last maybe 3 or 4 hours, but folks will know when they arrive!) out in time and further east in space for mostly the front half of the tonight period. After 06Z, nocturnal boundary layer conditions should establish enough to mute the strongest of strong winds that will still be happening off the surface. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Forecast challenges in the out periods include: 1. precipitation chances Saturday 2. strength of winds each day from Saturday through Tuesday 3. high level of uncertainty surrounding potential ranges in temperature Saturday through Tuesday. Surface high pressure will be over the CWA from Saturday through Wednesday of next week, interrupted only briefly on Saturday, when an area of low pressure works south-southeastward across the region. This is pretty much the only timeframe with precipitation potential in the extended. From Saturday through Tuesday, the weather machine will be stuck on breezy/windy out of the north. The large unwavering upper level low over the eastern CONUS in much of the out periods will be supporting this stuck/repetitive blustery wind pattern until the middle of next week. particularly from the James River valley eastward into Minnesota. The CWA ends up right out on the western fringe of the colder than normal airmass sitting underneath this massive forecast upper low for over the weekend into next week. As such, there will likely be quite a wide range in high temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday, where the west river counties could be seeing highs potentially as warm as the low 70s each day, while far northeast South Dakota/west central Minnesota counties may struggle to get beyond the low to mid 50s between Saturday and Tuesday. Low level WAA finally looks to be able to spread further east over the CWA Wednesday and Thursday. At least, that's what it looks like right now. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue to affect the region overnight, although conditions are forecast to improve to VFR fairly quickly across KMBG and KPIR, while taking a bit longer to improve at KABR and KATY. Will continue to see -RA across the region as well, especially across KABR and KATY, although VSBY should generally remain VFR within the -RA. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ early this morning for SDZ004-005-009-010-016-033>035-045-048. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for SDZ006-007- 011-017-018-036-037-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...Parkin