551 FXUS64 KTSA 192354 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Breezy conditions will continue through the overnight hours so the current wind advisory that goes until 12z will be left as is. Dry line currently situated across western Oklahoma this afternoon will continue to advance east some this afternoon before retreating west this evening. A few storms may develop along/ ahead of the dryline but any activity will likely weaken as the environment becomes increasingly capped further east. The advancing cold front will overtake the dryline overnight. Will keep low pops in for parts of NE OK late tonight to account for any lingering activity, along with additional development along the cold front as it approaches the OK/KS border around sunrise. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Cold front will move through most of the area Thursday, with areal coverage expanding along the front across SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Severe potential will be highest in these areas as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of the boundary. The severe weather risk should end by late afternoon or early evening. Rain and storm chances will continue into Friday as the front will be slow to clear the area before another wave rounds the lagging trough axis. This will push a reinforcing boundary through the area, resulting in cooler temps over the weekend. Model guidance isn't as cold with weekend overnight lows, especially Sunday morning as clouds and rain chances increase ahead an upper disturbance sliding through the W-NW flow aloft. Less cloud cover is expected across the N and NE portion of the forecast area, so will favor cooler low temperatures in those locations Sunday morning. The upper pattern will remain active at least into mid week with several disturbances offering chances for rain and isolated/scattered storms along with temperatures below seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 The near-term concern will be convective potential at the NE OK sites with storms from central OK approaching. Current thinking is that probability of any terminal getting hit directly is still pretty low, so elected to use VCTS mention for those TAFs thru 06z. Low level moisture return ahead of an approaching front will result in MVFR cigs overspreading the region during the early morning hours Thursday. Storm coverage along advancing front may be sparse initially during the early morning across NE OK, thus another VCTS mention for most favorable time window. Storm coverage should increase along front across NW AR and SE OK, so a more aggressive TEMPO mention was used for the favored time window. There is also going to be a brief window for IFR cigs just ahead of the front for those TAF sites as well. Cigs should trend back toward VFR behind the front, as winds switch to the NW. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 76 47 70 / 20 50 10 20 FSM 64 77 54 71 / 10 90 60 40 MLC 63 73 51 69 / 20 70 40 30 BVO 58 75 42 70 / 30 50 10 20 FYV 62 74 48 67 / 10 90 40 40 BYV 64 74 49 64 / 0 80 50 40 MKO 64 74 47 66 / 20 50 30 30 MIO 64 74 47 65 / 20 50 10 20 F10 62 75 48 67 / 20 50 20 30 HHW 64 75 57 69 / 10 90 70 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ054>076. AR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...30