714 
FXZS60 NSTU 120102
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
202 PM SST Tue Apr 11 2023

.Short term...

So far today, observed conditions have ranged from mostly sunny to
mostly cloudy skies with brief passing showers and a gentle to
moderate east-southeasterly breeze. Satellite imagery displays
scattered passing showers across American Samoa with numerous to 
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms just to the east of
Rose Atoll and Manu'a Islands. 

The showers and thunderstorms of the weak low pressure system
entering the region from the east will continue moving westward
into the rest of the region. This will increase cloud coverage 
and the enhance passing showers from scattered (40%) to numerous
(60%) overnight. Model guidance suggests that the most widespread
area of showers will remain just to the south of the region's 
islands. However, heavy rainfall and an isolated (20%) risk of 
thunderstorms, are possible tonight through Thursday evening. 
Late Wednesday, a developing ridge to the east will turn wind to a
light northeasterly breeze and begin dissipating the low's 
moisture. Skies will begin clearing on Friday and showers will 
become more scattered with a moderate easterly breeze.

.Long term...

Clouds and showers will return to the region on Saturday as
moisture from the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is carried
by upper level winds from the southwest. As the weekend
progresses, a high pressure far to the southwest will strengthen
and send more fragments of the SPCZ thereby increase showers on
Sunday to numerous (60%) as well as elevate the chance of an 
isolated (20%) thunderstorm through Monday. Light southeasterly 
breeze will turn northeast as a ridge to the east begins to 
dominate the region Monday. The ridge will move the moisture 
south of the region and showers will become scattered By Tuesday. 
The easterly breeze will enhance to moderate as the skies to 
clear.


&&

.Marine...

The latest PacIOOS data from the buoy east of Aunu'u is recording
an average wave height around 7 feet and a 10 second peak period,
which is beneath advisory level. As the series of troughs arrive
to the territoty, easterlies will ease and the wave height and
peak period will contiune lowering. Thus, surf will remain below 
advisory levels through the weekend despite an increasing wave 
period of a southerly swell forecast to arrive Thursday. Wave 
heights will begin to increase in the beginning of the new week as
a moderate easterly breeze returns when the clouds clear behind 
the troughs. 


&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None

&&

$$

GIrish