332 FXUS61 KILN 012326 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 726 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Windy conditions and scattered showers will taper off tonight, leaving tranquil weather conditions for Sunday. An active weather pattern will return again, by Tuesday into midweek as another strong storm system moves through the region. Rain and storm chances, along with breezy conditions, are expected at times for the first half of the workweek. Temperatures will be well above normal through midweek, with cooler air filtering back in for the end of the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Although the windiest conditions, which were coincident with a sharp sfc trof/front, have exited the area off to the E, numerous gusts to 40kts are still occurring in the CAA regime behind the front. This is especially the case as SCT SHRA moves in from the W, leading to a brief period of evaporative transfer of stronger winds from aloft to the sfc (due to the initially- steeper LL lapse rates). Do think that we are pretty much finished with the wind gusts of at least 50kts (HWW criteria), but given the persistence of 40kt gusts lingering through mid afternoon, am inclined to keep the existing HWW in place instead of replacing with a Wind Advisory for only a several hour period. This will avoid potential messaging confusion of expiring a HWW and replacing it with a Wind Advisory for only a 2-3 hour period. Nevertheless, once the 40kt gusts come to an end (expected by/around 21z), the HWW will most likely be cancelled early. Extensive cloud cover and SCT SHRA are overspreading the region from the W as the main midlevel S/W axis traverses the ILN FA. The thicker cloud cover/moisture profile moving in will translate to a steady downward trend in the gustiness into late afternoon and early evening from W to E. The SCT SHRA activity will linger near I-70 through about 21z before drifting closer to the OH Rvr/I-71 corridor around 00z. Conditions will gradually trend drier area-wide toward 03z and beyond, but suppose a few sprinkles may linger through the overnight amidst ample LL moisture/fetch off of Lake Michigan. Sfc temps are falling off fairly quickly with the CAA becoming established and the arrival of the thicker cloud cover. Temps will dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s by daybreak Sunday amidst mostly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The potent/compact midlevel low will quickly pull well to the E of the region by daybreak Sunday, leaving in its wake NW flow aloft. At the sfc, high pressure will build into the OH Vly, but until the WAA can evolve by late morning into early afternoon, the cloud cover may hang tight across the center part of the ILN FA. The sfc ridge axis should traverse the region around 15z, with LL WAA developing into early afternoon. This should allow for better mixing/scattering of the cloud cover from S to N early Sunday afternoon, with plentiful sunshine area-wide by midday. Although sfc temps may be slow to nudge up through the morning with the extensive cloud cover, a late-day surge will allow for temps to get close to 60F near the Tri-State, with cooler temps in the lower 50s in central OH where the clouds will be slowest to clear. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NW flow aloft on Sunday will transition to quasi-zonal flow by early Monday, with a compact S/W tracking across the TN Vly during the morning hours. This will allow for some increase in cloud cover locally and perhaps a few SHRA once again as some subtle forcing develops amidst an increasing moisture profile. The activity will be fairly ISO in nature, but once again it won't be a completely dry day during the day Monday. By Tuesday into Wednesday, a more significant system will develop in the central CONUS, promoting downstream ridging locally. With the deeper-layer WAA becoming established, isentropic lift should allow for some ISO/SCT SHRA to develop once again, but there remain some uncertainties regarding both coverage and location of this activity. This being said, there remains a strong signal for /much/ above normal temps both Tuesday and Wednesday, with temps reaching into the 70s on both days for at least the southern half of the ILN FA. Cannot even rule out a few 80-degree readings in N/NE KY and south-central OH on Tuesday and potentially again in NE KY and south-central OH on Wednesday. Temps will be /well/ above normal, with lows in the lower/mid 60s, on Tuesday night. As the primary sfc low tracks thru the Great Lakes late Tuesday night and Wednesday, a cold front will swing east across the area Wednesday, with a band of SHRA/TSRA pushing across the area from W to E by Wednesday. While it is too early to get into specifics about storm coverage, intensity, or timing, the setup could once again become favorable for a few strong/severe storms given the overlap of instby and LL/deeper-layer shear. More details will be able to be provided once the evolution of the various ingredients comes into better focus. Strong synoptic-scale winds are also likely in the tight pressure gradient accompanying the cold front and in the wake of the front Wednesday. Surface high pressure to build into the area offering dry weather Thursday. More seasonable temps will return by late in the week. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level shortwave trof over the Eastern Great Lakes to continue tracking east away from the local area. East-west oriented surface trof over the area will lead to scattered showers early this evening. Coverage is limited and decreasing so have limited any mention in the TAFs to VCSH. Low clouds will spill into the area on northwesterly flow. Expect ceilings to drop to MVFR and remain there until Sunday morning. Clouds will lift Sunday morning becoming VFR by afternoon. Winds gusting close to 30 KTs early will continue to diminish overnight becoming lift and variable by Sunday morning as surface high pressure builds into the area. Winds will back southwesterly as the center of the high builds off to the east Sunday afternoon. .OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions become possible again Monday into Wednesday. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...AR