437 FXUS61 KCLE 012321 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 721 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front moves southward across the region this evening. High pressure builds over the area Sunday. A warm front moves northward Monday night stalling near or over Lake Erie. A cold front sweeps across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cold front settles southward across the region overnight. There are a few rain/snow showers along the boundary. Expect to see the rain become all snow as temperatures cool. Snow accumulations are not expected with the fast southward movement of the front. Previous Discussion... The departing low pressure system will quickly take any lingering low level moisture with it this evening as it erodes north to south and POPs rapidly disintegrate. Before this occurs, however, it is possible to get a little wet snow mixing in with any of the leftover precipitation as the low levels/surface continue to cool in the wake of the departing system. High pressure will quickly exert its influence from the southwest tonight, and will head into Sunday with a dry forecast in place as flow aloft becomes zonal. Very progressive pattern takes the surface high to the coast and leaves the CWA back into return flow with a frontal system approaching yet again from the west. Warm advection in the low levels sees 850mb temperatures back into the single digits setting the stage for a warm up in the short term portion of the forecast. Below freezing tonight, 40s/50s Sunday, 30s/40s Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Broad upper level ridging will allow high pressure off the Atlantic Coast to produce an increasing south to southwesterly flow over the area through this forecast period. A warm front is expected to lift north across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania by Monday night. The front should become nearly stationary at that time. A rather strong upper level low pressure system is expected to dive into the Plains States by Tuesday night resulting in a nearly vertically stacked low to the surface. Gradient around this system is expected to ramp up as well and this should set-up a potential for another windy period. Eventually, as the surface low moves closer to the forecast area Tuesday night, expecting a strong push of warm air into the region for Wednesday. Moisture associated with the frontal boundaries should surge north into the area well in advance of the surface low pressure system. This should bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area in the warm sector and ahead of a strong cold front. As the warm front stalls short of the lakeshore, a marked difference in temperature is expected from the northeast lakeshore compared to inland temperatures. Highs near the lake could be in the lower 50s but inland highs should be in the lower 70s. The warm air advection should keep temperatures in the lower 60s away from the lake and lower 50s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deep vertically stacked low pressure system over the Upper Mississippi Valley region is poised to set-up a strong warm air advection flow over the forecast area for Wednesday. A stationary front along the lakeshore Tuesday night is expected to lift north as a warm front Wednesday morning placing the entire area in the strong warm sector. This system is expected to push the warmest temperatures so far this season into the local area. It is not out of the question at this time that all areas should break the 70 degree mark. Timing of the warm air into the area during the day Wednesday and approaching cold front Wednesday evening, we could see another round of strong storms across the area. Then, strong cold air advection, comparatively speaking, is expected to follow the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. The cold air advection should push temperatures back down into the 40s for lows Wednesday night followed by highs Thursday in the lower to middle 50s. An upper level ridge and surface high pressure gradually build east across the area Thursday through Saturday. A slight recovery in temperatures is expected by Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Cold front will move southward across the region through the evening. A few rain/snow showers will cause visibilities to briefly drop to MVFR/IFR. The expectation is that ceilings drop to MVFR at all locations near and ahead of the front. Ceilings gradually lift and dissipate through Sunday morning. Westerly winds ahead of the cold front should be in the 10 to 20 knot range with a few gust to 30 knots possible through the evening. Winds shift to the northwest but remain 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Speeds decrease by sunset Sunday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Monday through Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... A strong low level jet maxima moved east across the lake this afternoon behind the cold front pushing winds to gale force for a brief period of time. Winds are beginning to diminish over the western basin at this time and will go ahead and drop the gale warning over that area. The maximum winds is still working up the lake and will leave the gale warning up for the rest of the lake for the time being. Expecting the winds to diminish west to east across the lake this evening as they become northwest. Otherwise, generally light winds are expected on the lake through the day Sunday and they will then become southerly Sunday night. A gradual increase to the wind speeds to 18 to 25 knots over the lake is expected to take place Monday from the southwest. Light winds return to the area Monday night ahead of the next system and approaching warm front which shifts winds around to the east at 15 to 25 knots. Low pressure pushes east toward the area and deepens. The gradient tightens up considerably pushing the warm front well north of the lake Wednesday. Strong warm air advection takes place but cold dome over the lake should help keep winds at bay down near the surface. A strong cold front will push east late Wednesday into Wednesday night allowing stronger winds to mix down to the surface Thursday at 20 to 30 knots. We may need to increase winds depending on how strong this system becomes. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142- 143. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>149- 164>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MM NEAR TERM...26/MM SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...MM MARINE...Lombardy