127 FXUS63 KSGF 011930 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Key Messages: 1. Frost Advisory across the eastern Ozarks tonight into early Sunday morning. 2. Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the area on Sunday. afternoon. 3. Gusty southerly winds and warmer conditions through early week. Strongest winds expected on Tuesday. 4. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday into early Wednesday. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 A sunny and breezy day across the Ozarks this afternoon. Highs have climbed into the lower to middle 50s. Meanwhile, gusty winds continue to slowly dissipate as high pressure builds into the region. The combination of breezy conditions and a dry airmass continue to result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and again on Sunday. Calm winds and a mostly clear night across the area, with overnight lows in the 30s as winds turn light. This will set the stage for frost development across portions of the eastern Ozarks, especially in the valleys and protected areas. Given some recent budding and growth among the vegetation, frost and freeze headlines will now be issued going forward in early Spring. For tonight, a Frost Advisory has been issued for areas across the east, or along and east of Highway 5. Some frost potential exists west of this area, but is conditional on the return of southerly winds at the surface early Sunday morning. For Sunday, a chilly start to the morning in the 30s. Southerly winds will be on the increase through the morning into the afternoon, with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected across southeast Kansas into portions of central and southwest Missouri. Expect afternoon highs to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday afternoon. Some associated cloud cover and low rain chances (10-30%) on Sunday evening/night as a quick moving shortwave slides through the central CONUS. No severe weather will occur with this system. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Heading into Monday, upper level ridging continues to build over the central CONUS, allowing warmer air and eventually moisture to return to the area. Breezy conditions continue on Monday with afternoon southerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Meanwhile, afternoon highs reach into the middle to upper 70s on Monday and Tuesday. Another large scale upper level trough begins to take shape across the southwest US on Monday. This trough and associated low will feature the return of shower and thunderstorm chances to the area on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that another strong system will impact portions of the region on Tuesday, departing early Wednesday. Similar to the most recent event, this dynamic system will feature a severe threat in addition to strong wind gusts and a low flood risk. An amplified upper level jet streak and 40 to 60 knot low-level jet will support rapid cyclogenesis occuring Tuesday morning across the Plains. The system will also see an ample amount of moisture return with PWATs of 1.0 to 1.5 inch. The general consensus is that a strong shear and instability combination will exist, with the focus on the timing of the forcing. Warm sector capping should limit most convection on Tuesday afternoon, with the forcing coming in the form of a dryline/frontal boundary into Tuesday evening. Likewise to the previous event, the small details will play a key role in the assessment of the greatest severe weather risk. Convection coverage may not be widespread in nature, but intense where it occurs given the setup. The exact timing, locations, and hazard types will be fine-tuned in subsequent forecasts. The progressive nature of this event should limit any flood potential, with a low flood risk across south central Missouri. An additional concern with this system will be gusty non- thunderstorm winds. Expect strong mixing to occur on Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a dryline across the western portions of the area. This sets the stage for wind headlines on Tuesday with wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph forecast. Based on early analysis, a Wind Advisory seems likely along and west of the Highway 65 corridor on Tuesday afternoon. Will continue to monitor and assess the need for headlines as the event approaches. A cooler airmass filters in behind the system, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday. Potential clearing and high pressure building in Wednesday night into Thursday morning may set the stage for an additional frost/freeze setup. Cooler conditions continue into late week with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This is slightly below normal for early April. A few quick moving systems late in the week, though no widespread rainfall chances on the horizon at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Gusty west/northwest winds will subside through the afternoon, becoming lighter this evening as high pressure moves into the region. Winds turning out of the south/southeast at 5 to 10 knots on Sunday morning. South winds increase late in the TAF period, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots returning. Meanwhile, mostly clear skies expected through the TAF period outside of a few high level clouds. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ057-058- 069>071-081>083-092-096>098-106. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez