851 FXUS64 KSJT 011912 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 212 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Expect overnight lows about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Stratus will overspread the area Sunday morning and linger through mid to late morning, with clearing skies by afternoon. By afternoon, a dryline will be located across our western counties, as weak upper level trough approaches from the west. In addition, a warm front will slowly be lifting north across the forecast area. An increasingly unstable environment is forecast to develop ahead of the dryline by mid to late afternoon, mainly across our eastern counties. Expect SBCAPE values to increase to increase to 1500-2500 J/KG and 0-6 KM Bulk Shear vectors to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible by late morning or early afternoon, as far east as the Concho Valley, with rain chances increasing and quickly shifting into our eastern counties by early afternoon as the dryline progresses east. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns, although a tornado cannot be ruled out. Rain chances will begin to shift east of the area by late afternoon, as the dryline continues to advance eastward. Highs on Sunday will continue to be warm with highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ... Chance of strong storms Sunday. Fire weather concerns Sunday through Tuesday. High winds on Tuesday... Southerly flow will bring increased moisture and temperatures into the area Sunday. A north-south oriented dryline will develop in our western counties early Sunday. A mid level shortwave will be moving across the area on Sunday as well. The lift associated with the shortwave, dry line, and warm air advection could produce showers and thunderstorms starting in the late morning and into the late afternoon. Models are differing slightly with the exact location of the dryline, which will impact whether precipitation will develop across our area or not. If precipitation does develop, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible east of the dry line, primarily in our northeastern counties. Instability and shear values will support hail, strong winds, and possibly a weak tornado. The main concern will be hail with these storms, but we can not rule out the formation of a tornado Sunday afternoon. The dry line will hang around our area for a few days, leaving a pretty significant gradient in relative humidity values until it moves further east on Tuesday. On Monday, there is a small chance we could see a few storms again, but CIN and dry low to mid levels should prevent anything from developing. However, if something does develop it could become strong due to the instability at mid levels and wind shear. Temperatures will warm up through Tuesday, as our southwest winds bring warm and dry air into the area. Highs on Monday could reach into the mid 90s and highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Our next upper level trough will be over the West coast Monday. As it moves eastward, a surface low will develop near the four corners region and move toward our area. As it forms, the pressure gradient will tighten and we will see strong winds on Tuesday, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. The dry conditions and breezy winds will cause fire weather concerns for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday (greatest concern on Tuesday). The aforementioned surface low will be to the north of our area on Tuesday and will drag a cold front through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Mid and lower levels should be too dry to see any precipitation along this front. Temperatures will drop Wednesday and the rest of the week will be cooler. A wetter pattern looks to be in store starting Thursday, with a chance of rain everyday through the end of this forecast period, && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 East winds will become southeast by mid afternoon and generally remain below 12 knots, although some higher gusts are possible. Expect winds overnight to generally remain in the 8 to 12 knot range, then become south and increase to 14 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, by late morning. Stratus will overspread the area Sunday morning, resulting in MVFR ceilings. The MVFR ceilings should persist through late morning or early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 56 84 55 91 / 0 30 0 0 San Angelo 57 86 54 91 / 10 20 0 0 Junction 59 86 57 94 / 0 20 0 10 Brownwood 54 82 54 91 / 0 50 0 10 Sweetwater 56 85 54 89 / 0 20 0 0 Ozona 60 87 54 89 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 55 84 58 91 / 0 30 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...Daniels