619 FXUS61 KCLE 011732 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 132 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Lake Michigan will push east today and extend a strong cold front across the area today. High pressure will build in behind the system for Sunday. Low pressure will move through the northern Great Lakes on Monday and extend a cold front into the area Monday afternoon. This front will stall across the area for Tuesday as the next system forms in the central United States. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 920 AM Update... Clear conditions continue this morning and will allow for eventual surface based destabilization in the eastern half of the CWA in a another severe weather potential forecast day. Most of the instability will be above 850mb, and the convection will not necessarily be reliant on the surface based CAPE, but the insolation will work to feed the severe potential today. Low level jet brings a secondary surge of low level moisture in this morning with the 850mb dewpoints back above 0C. Plenty of wind in the column along with some evaporative cooling potential at the onset with dry air entrainment possible adding to the wind threat. Best window remains late morning into late afternoon. Original Discussion... The region is almost entirely clear and should be dry over the next several hours. With the clearing, winds should start mixing down and wind gusts will increase across the area this morning. The wind advisory is in effect for the entire area through 8 PM. The main concern for today will be another round of severe weather. The atmosphere ahead of the main cold front will have several hours to recover. Temperatures should reach the lower 60s ahead of the front and instability will build, especially across NE OH and NW PA. Meanwhile, a 60-70 mb 700 mb jet will move into the region ahead of the cold front and the combination of the two features should force more showers and thunderstorms across the region with enough wind shear to allow for an organized damaging wind threat. The best window for storms will be Noon to 4 PM. With the system just a touch slower and some more recovery time in the region, the SPC Slight Risk has been expanded west to include much of the Cleveland, Akron, and Canton metros with the Marginal Risk getting to I-71. Some rain will linger behind the storms through the evening hours with the cold air advection over Lake Erie and some rain may even change into some wet snowflakes. The system moves out tonight and expect dry weather into Sunday as high pressure quickly builds into the region. Lows tonight will chill into the upper 20s and highs on Sunday will be cooler in the 40s to near 50. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure exits east Sunday night as surface low pressure moves toward the northern Great Lakes region. This low will lift a warm front north across our area. The low pressure will continue to glide eastward, remaining north of the forecast area but will swing a cold front from west to east across the CWA Monday evening into early Tuesday. A secondary low pressure will eject from the Rockies on Tuesday leading to the aforementioned cold front to become stationary by Tuesday morning before lifting north as a warm front late Tuesday. PoPs will gradually increase throughout the short term forecast period. Models are continuing to hint at increased instability on Tuesday afternoon, characterized by MUCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. It looks like the best instability on Tuesday will remain to our south and west, but we will need to continue to monitor over the next few days. For now have kept thunder mentioned for Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Lows Sunday night range from the low-mid 30s across NW PA with mid 40s elsewhere. Highs Monday in the low 60s with lows in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday will flirt with with 70, especially for those south of US 30, with warm overnight lows on Tuesday in the mid 50s to low 60s ahead of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low pressure that ejected from the Rockies will move northward into the upper Midwest. This low will swing a cold front west to east across the CWA during the day Wednesday. Some model discrepancy in instability Wednesday afternoon with the GFS indicating up to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and the Euro and Canadian lower and closer to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. For now, kept thunder mentioned in the forecast but this event will need to continue to be monitored with each forecast update. High pressure builds behind this system giving us dry weather to end the week. Temperatures will decrease throughout the long term with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 70s. Cooler on Thursday and Friday with highs hovering around 50 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Convection exiting with MVFR stratus in wrap around moisture from the northwest filtering into the western terminals. This will continue to spread east and southeast over the first 6 hours of the forecast. Patchy light rain also expected, but will keep the visibilities at VFR despite the precipitation. Winds will ease gradually through the forecast as well, eventually coming down below 12kts after 03Z Sunday for the western terminals and after 06Z Sunday for the eastern terminals. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain on Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Confidence for sustained gales on Lake Erie has decreased therefore the Gale Watch has been cancelled and Small Craft Advisories have been extended. Sustained winds in excess of 30 knots remain likely on Lake Erie Saturday afternoon and evening. Have Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore zones of Lake Erie through late tonight/early Sunday morning. Southwest winds 15-25 knots persist through late this morning before winds shift and become more westerly by this afternoon. Winds increase to 25-30 knots with the potential for winds in excess of 30 knots. Westerly winds become northwesterly and diminish to 15-20 knots by late tonight. Given onshore flow, waves in excess of 5 feet will persist until early Sunday morning. Winds become southeasterly at 10 knots or less by Sunday evening with quiet marine conditions through mid week. Next time frame to watch for will be Wednesday as strong southerly flow returns to the area. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ145>147. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...26/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...26 MARINE...Iverson