983 FXUS63 KPAH 011729 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The severe thunderstorm threat has ended, but gusty gradient winds will continue through the rest of this morning. The main period of gustiness will occur as a secondary cold front moves the forecast area, roughly between 10 and 14z today. BUFKIT soundings from the RAP, HRRR, and GFS show a period of 35-40 kts gusts this morning across the entire forecast area. Opted to expand the inherited Wind Advisory to include the entire forecast area. Winds should relax below advisory levels after 18z, so did not change the expiration time. The daytime hours today will see temperatures only recovering into the lower to middle 50s due to the strong CAA. A lobe of mid- level moisture rotating through the Great Lakes will bring increasing cloudiness to southeast IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY, while the rest of the forecast will remain mostly sunny. Wind will relax tonight. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 30s. This will allow patchy frost to develop. We are still too early in the growing season for frost/freeze headlines, but will include a mention of frost in the HWO for those with early season growing interests. Sunday will see temperatures rebound back into the lower to middle 60s as the region comes under mild zonal H5 flow. The day will begin with sunny skies, but cloud cover will increase during the afternoon and evening hours. Low temperatures Sunday night will dip into the lower to middle 50s. On Monday, slight to low chc PoPs will increase as a frontal boundary sags southward into the region from the north, as well as increasing WAA from southerly surface flow. Any rain that does fall should be light, though a rumble or two of thunder cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into Monday night with low temperatures remaining mild, in the lower to middle 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 For the long term forecast period, the main weather event continues to be the development of another strong surface low that tracks northeastward from the lee of the Rockies, bringing a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms to the Quad State region sometime between late Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are in slightly better agreement on timing compared to the previous model cycle. On Tuesday a deep trough will be located over the Mountain West with a ridge over the eastern half of the country. Low pressure emerges in the Central Plains midday Tuesday and begins developing as it moves northeastward. Southerly flow increases through the Quad State with winds becoming breezy. Sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts of 30+ mph are likely. Strong warm air advection leads to highs on Tuesday near 80. Moisture advection ahead of a developing cold front, along with localized smaller scale instability, increases PoPs to the chance range Tuesday afternoon. Rain becomes likely Tuesday night as the front approaches, with thunderstorm activity increasing. The low pressure center Tuesday evening is likely to be near Iowa with the warm front north of the Quad State. Storm development ahead of the cold front may include strong to severe storms sometime between late Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday, depending on frontal passage timing, which models currently leans towards Wednesday morning. The GFS ensemble is slightly more progressive than the others. The previous SPC outlook for Tuesday included a slight risk over the Quad State with an enhanced risk area to the west, and there does not appear to be much in the models to suggest any sort of significant change is likely. QPF has been cut in half this forecast run to amounts similar to today, up to an inch generally, with locally higher amounts possible with stronger storms. Assuming a Wednesday morning frontal passage, temperatures will remain elevated Tuesday night with lows near 60 or above. Highs Wednesday will reach the 70s in areas where the cold front arrives closer to midday. Models have shifted lower for PoPs the rest of the week and start of the weekend as high pressure moves into the Midwest. Highs Thursday and Friday are forecast to be near 60, with morning lows near 40. Gulf moisture will stream into the south but appears increasingly likely to be forced northeastward towards the Southern Appalachians. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Strong west northwest winds will continue to gust 25-30kts this afternoon while gradually diminishing. Winds should be light by sunset and a south wind under 10kts will develop with mixing Sunday morning. Otherwise, some lower VFR ceilings will persist across the northern half of the region through the afternoon before clearing by early evening. With clear skies, light winds, and recent rainfall, some at least patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out overnight into early Sunday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KYZ001>022. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DWS LONG TERM...ATL AVIATION...DRS