832 FXUS63 KFGF 011502 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1002 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 958 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Skies continue to be mostly clear across the region this morning allowing temperatures to out preform some of the guidance. Thus, we increased temperatures for today to account for the mostly sunny skies. Otherwise, we are still monitoring the weak short wave moving in tonight into Sunday bringing the chance for snow, mixed precipitation, and possible freezing rain. UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Skies have cleared out this morning, leaving just a few upper level clouds. Expect today to be a nice day, however, travel conditions could be dicey as winds pick up and drift snow across the roadway. Use caution if traveling is in your Saturday plans. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Saturday should be a fairly nice day, with skies remaining mostly free of clouds throughout the morning and afternoon. It looks to be a bit breezy as the system that affected our southern counties pulls east of us. Winds could gust up to 40 MPH in the Devils Lake Basin and the northern Red River Valley, which could cause some more issues with blow ice in areas the snow is more blowable. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 20s and 30s. The next impactful event for this area will be on Sunday and into Monday morning. A low pressure system will eject out of the Canadian Rockies and pass just north of the international border. Despite the center of the low passing north in Canada, there will still be snowfall on this side of the border. Guidance is in agreement for an early Sunday morning start to the precipitation in our western areas. After looking at simulated soundings, most are in agreement of a brief period of freezing rain starting the precipitation in the Devils Lake Basin and along the international border. Some models even bring a hundredth of ice as far south as the Grand Forks area, but most common accumulations look to be under 0.10". As for snow, NBM probabilities give between a 30 - 60% chance for greater than an inch of snow, with the highest probabilities being in Towner, Cavalier, Ramsey, and western Pembina counties. Increasing to >2 inches in 24 hours isolates probabilities greater than 50% pretty exclusively to the Towner county area. Most likely amounts are ranging up to 3 inches, with most areas seeing a dusting to an inch. Another concern on Sunday is more wind gusts up to 40 - 45 MPH. This could cause blowing snow in isolated areas that will reduce visibility, or cause more blow ice issues in areas with fresh snow (received on Sunday or around the SD border with the Friday storm). Highs on Sunday will be a little warmer, getting up to around and above freezing, with some areas in the Minnesota trees getting up to the 40s! As the snow exits late Sunday night/early Monday morning, lows will dip into the teens and 20s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Key Messages: - Impacts are likely Tuesday into Wednesday from a Colorado low moving into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. - Differences in location of heaviest snow exist mainly due to the degree that the strength and location of the 500 mb and surface low. All the focus is on the Tuesday/Wednesday system. 0630z conference call with WPC indicated their increased confidence in moderate to major impacts of a large swath from southeast Wyoming into eastern ND and northwestern MN. Extreme impacts possible. 00z Sat ECMWF indicates a high end event for eastern ND compared to climatology. Thus this leads to greater confidence that indeed a significant storm will occur. Now the details of track, strength of sfc/700/500 mb system remains a bit uncertain. ECMWF model runs and ECMWF ensembles continue to indicate a stronger and farther west track with this system and spreads heavy snow farther west toward Bismarck and Devils Lake. Past several runs of the GFS and GEFS are a bit weaker, more progressive with sfc/500 mb low and doesnt back it more west and thus the heavy snow axis is a tad southeast of ECMWF track in our area, but still gives most of our area (except DVL) heavy snow. Canadian global is in the same boat as GFS. NBM 4.1 snow accumulations and snow probs follow a middle of the road approach but still the highest chances for more than 1 foot of snow Pierre to btwn Fargo and Grand Forks (65-75 percent) with even 60 pct chance of more than 18 inches in the mid Red River valley. Now these values may be a tad excessive, but it goes to show the potential strength of this system and amount of moisture available for this system. Winds are stronger on the ECMWF as its stronger with sfc low, with 850 mb winds prog in the 55-60 kt range west of the Red River valley, with other global models a tad less more in the 45 kt range and more over the Red River valley. Additional conf calls will be done with WPC this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Conditions will be VFR today, with some visibility reductions possible due to blowing snow expected as winds pick up Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts up to 35 kts are possible with sustained winds 15 - 20 kts. Ceilings will be relatively high into Saturday night and early Sunday morning, but begin to lower into Sunday morning ahead of an approaching system. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Spender SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...Riddle AVIATION...AK