785 FXUS65 KABQ 011145 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 545 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Much less wind today, but that reprieve will be temporary. Winds will ramp up a little more on Sunday across eastern New Mexico, then a lot more Monday and Tuesday areawide. Strong to damaging winds are expected Monday and Tuesday with widespread gusts between 50 and 70 mph, though localized higher gusts are possible. Critical fire weather conditions are expected each day as humidity values plummet below 15 percent across much of central and eastern NM. Temperatures will warm up this weekend and stay warm through Monday before turning sharply colder behind a cold front on Tuesday. Less wind and more precipitation chances will return late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows mainly westerly flow aloft over New Mexico with a deep upper level low over the Midwest and a weaker low off the coast of southern California. Upper level flow should become SW later today and tonight as this weaker upper low shears out as it moves across AZ into NM by Sunday morning. Overall this trough should pass by without any consequence as it will be moisture starved. Sunday night upper level flow becomes zonal in the wake of this low and begins to increase in response to a trough deepening upstream over the Pacific NW. This system will be the one to watch going forward Monday into Tuesday for high winds and critical fire weather. The only weather hazards of concern in the short term for now will be related to fire weather so we will address those details in the fire weather section. Temperatures today and Sunday do increase with 70s in the RGV by Sunday and mid/upper 80s for SE/E NM. Winds do increase over NE Highlands and Plains which also match up with areas of critical fire weather for today. Sunday these conditions cover a larger area of E NM. Rapid fire growth with any fires that do develop is a high probability under these condtions so we will be messaging this potential accordingly. Not only that...we are looking at prolonged critical fire weather conditions through at least this coming Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Sunday night will be relatively quiet, especially when compared to Monday and Tuesday. However, gusty winds are expected along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain thanks to strong westerly flow aloft and mountain wave activity. Winds on Monday will increase considerably as a 534dam closed low moves over the northern Great Basin and the associated jet is steered over AZ and portions of western NM. H7 wind speeds of 35 to 55 kts are expected by afternoon with mixing heights likely to reach or surpass that level. To add to the concern, a 986-988mb surface low will develop across southeast CO increasing the pressure gradient areawide. Widespread Wind Advisory type speeds can be expected, but across western NM, where the H7 winds will be near 55kts, high winds are probable. A High Wind Watch was issued for a few zones across the west and northwest where the greatest confidence exists that high winds will occur. The aforementioned jet will cross NM Monday night and Tuesday, and H7 winds speeds are only forecast to increase. In fact, exceptionally concerning H7 winds of 70 to 80kts move over the southern half of the CWA overnight before the core of the jet shifts northeast during the day Tuesday. But even by late Tuesday afternoon H7 winds of 50-60kts will still be present across eastern NM. Meanwhile at the surface, a potent cold front will race from west to east across the area, likely pushing into west TX by mid day Tuesday. Despite much colder air moving in, mixing heights still look to be very high, and turbulence along the front will likely enhance wind speeds as it passes. It's likely that High Wind Warnings will eventually be needed for the southern high terrain and much of eastern NM at minimum for late Monday through Tuesday. As mentioned, the cold front will be quite potent, and high temperatures on Tuesday will be as much as 20 to 30 degrees cooler than on Monday areawide. This will cause wind chill readings across northern and western NM to be in the 20s and low 30s during the afternoon hours Tuesday. Of course, with the wind, there will certainly be a high chance for areas of blowing dust and certainly hazardous crosswinds. Also worth mentioning is the chance for some light snow across the northern mountains as this system passes Monday into Tuesday. But it's likely accumulations will be hard to come by as the snow will be blowing considerably with the winds. A significant downtrend in wind speeds is expected for Wednesday, though still breezy to locally windy conditions are expected along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Temperatures will remain chilly as well. Late in the week, we will be watching a trough deepening into a closed low to the west of the state. This may help bring up Gulf Moisture and increase the chances for precipitation, but the details still need to be ironed out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2023 As previously discussed for the 06Z TAFs we are still looking at VFR conditions with gusty winds this afternoon mainly for KLVS, KTCC and KROW. Any low level wind shear should be diminishing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains especially after sunrise with boundary layer mixing beginning. Winds should decouple again tonight as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. 39 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY... Yes it's that time of year where we are looking at prolonged critical fire weather conditions across New Mexico especially the eastern plains where drought conditions persist. Overall there is not much change to the forecast or thinking with regards to fire weather conditions. Today SW winds should increase over much of NE NM with plenty of dry air for critical conditions. Red flag warning in effect for today will remain as is and still on track with the latest guidance. Warning will cover the NE fire zones and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Critical conditions look to expand through the next several days. A trough is expected to push across much of southern NM on Sunday but in it's wake westerly winds are expected to increase during the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday covering much of E NM and yet again looks on track the latest thinking. RH values look to drop below 10 percent for several hours on Sunday as there will be high temperatures pushing into the 80s from Roswell to Tucumcari. Winds increase a touch over Saturday's forecast with solid areas of 25 to 35 mph winds and gusts above 40 mph at times. Confidence is growing for more widespread and higher end critical fire weather conditions for New Mexico on Monday into Tuesday. SW winds aloft increase on Monday in response to a deepening trough over the western US. NAEFS is showing 99th percentile for 700mb winds over much of W NM in the 50-60 kt range as the nose of a strong jet approaches the region on Monday. Much of these winds shift east into Tuesday as the trough pushes across the Rockies with a negative tilt. While on Monday there will be more widespread strong winds over much of New Mexico with low RH, Tuesday a very tight pressure gradient sets up with lee cyclogenesis over SE CO so this is looking like a more synoptically evident high wind, high end critical fire weather day. Tuesday looks to be more worrisome for fire weather despite a cold front and 20 degree drop in temperatures because of the winds. The drier air with the front will compensate for the lower temperatures and the winds have a higher chance of being stronger on Tuesday. And Monday will be bad enough as it is. Where confidence is lower for critical fire weather conditions will be the RGV and western NM more so on Tuesday than Monday. This will be highly dependent upon fuels and these areas have had a lot more winter precipitation than the eastern part of the state. So the details to work out over the next day or two will be to determine how far to the west critical conditions will exist and need to include in any watches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 30 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 53 22 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 56 31 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 61 27 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 63 23 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 62 31 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 64 35 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 32 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 65 27 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 70 36 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 46 22 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 57 35 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 36 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 45 27 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 48 21 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 56 24 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 58 33 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 63 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 57 36 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 33 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 33 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 37 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 69 30 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 36 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 68 28 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 65 36 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 30 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 62 39 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 36 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 71 38 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 60 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 61 33 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 63 28 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 62 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 63 35 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 42 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 37 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 61 32 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 66 27 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 27 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 63 32 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 66 37 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 66 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 73 36 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 36 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 73 39 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 72 40 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 74 40 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 72 37 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 41 86 43 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 73 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 70 40 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ201-202-205-206. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...39 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...39