586 FXUS64 KMAF 011125 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Much more quiescent weather is in store for west Texas and southeast New Mexico for the remainder of the weekend as the upper trough responsible for yesterday's wind has lifted into the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure building into the Texas panhandle this morning is helping to push a dying front southward, with the only realized effect being a brief northerly windshift by sunrise. As this feature continues to glide to the east into the afternoon, winds veer back to south-southeasterly, helping to pull moisture back into the eastern and southeastern zones. The return of southerly flow and a developing low level thermal ridge helps to bring today's high temperatures into the 70s and 80s. As moisture advection continues through tonight, a dryline sharpens near the TX/NM state line by Sunday morning. The increased moisture keeps lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s for most with 40s found west of the dryline. A shortwave trough translating along the quasi-zonal upper level flow in turn helps the dryline mix well to the east towards San Angelo by Sunday afternoon. Not only does this help bring temperatures well into the upper 80s and low 90s, but ushers in very dry air and increased westerly winds resulting in near-critical fire weather...see the Fire Weather Discussion below for further details. With the presence of the added moisture ahead of the dryline and some upper level ascent provided by the shortwave, a few thunderstorms may develop across the Western Low Rolling Plains late Sunday morning. Any storms that do form quickly depart eastward as the dryline continues mixing into the afternoon. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Sunday night, zonal flow aloft will transition to southwest as an upper-level trough begins digging southeast through the western CONUS. Lows will remain AOA normal. Monday, southwest winds begin increasing in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range, w/downslope warming and increasing thicknesses endowing the warmest day this forecast as afternoon highs soar to 10F above normal. High winds are likely to manifest in the Guadalupes/Delawares. Tuesday, the upper trough will pass through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, unfortunately taking the shine off warmer wx as a Pac front takes afternoon highs below normal SE NM and closer to normal elsewhere. West winds will increase substantially, necessitating widespread high wind warnings/advisories. This will also result in critical fire wx area-wide. See fire wx discussion below for more details. Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, a cold front will drop in behind the trough, yielding below-normal temperatures into the weekend. Thursday, an open trough will make landfall on the west coast, and the GFS/ECMWF close it off over the southwest border Friday, whereas The CMC keeps it up in the PacNW. Cluster prototypes suggest the CMC is out to lunch, and the GFS/ECMWF offer more realistic solutions. That said, the ECMWF is atypically faster than the GFS on the latest runs. Both models (and the NBM) hint at -SHRA developing over the southeast Thursday morning, and developing west on easterly upslope flow into the weekend as the trough approaches and low-level moisture increases. Should this come to fruition, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will get a break from fire wx for a few days. However, confidence remains low, as long-range models are typically promising in the long term, and dry out as the event nears. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Light winds largely out of the north veer to south-southeasterly by this afternoon. Some gusts look to develop at CNM and FST later this afternoon. VFR prevailing at all terminals throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 WV imagery shows the next upper trough approaching SoCal/Baja, and calm, zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Surface observations show abysmal recovery this morning, with very low dewpoints still in place after yesterday's windstorm. As such, single-digit minimum RH is anticipated all but the eastern/southern fringes of the FWA today, resulting in widespread 3-4 RFTI. W/ERCs 50th percentile or better all but areas in the Big Bend, we've shotgunned a RFD across the entire FWA. The aforementioned upper trough will make landfall later today, traverse the sw CONUS, and pass through the FWA Sunday morning. Recovery tonight will improve somewhat over this morning, but westerly 20ft winds/mixing Sunday afternoon will yield even lower minimum RH than today, setting up for another (but high-end) elevated fire weather day. Recovery Sunday night looks poor all but the southeast, and 20ft winds begin increasing Monday in response to leeside troughing ahead of the next upper trough. Afternoon highs will soar to well-above normal. As a result, RH Monday afternoon will be in the low single- digits area-wide, with 7-8 RFTI creeping into the western FWA. ERCs are forecast 75th percentile of higher across most of the area. This will likely warrant a RFW over the western FWA. Another poor night of recovery is anticipated Monday night, before the upper trough arrives Tuesday. SGPWO CIPs peg this as the most critical fire wx event this week, with single-digit minimum RH combining with ridiculous 20ft winds to blanket the area with widespread RFTI of 8, with even some isolated 9 over the southwest. Wednesday onward, cooler temperatures behind the trough, as well as much lower 20ft winds and possibly precip, will afford a break in critical fire wx in the extended. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 80 54 90 50 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 78 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 82 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 81 57 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 73 51 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 77 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 42 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 80 56 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 80 57 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 80 50 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...16