408 FXUS63 KMPX 010827 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 327 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Blizzard conditions, including snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, will end by daybreak. - Strong warm air advection on Sunday may produce highs of at least 50 degrees for points south and east of the Twin Cities. - Another multi-faceted low pressure system will produce mixed wintry precipitation Tuesday through Wednesday. - Below normal temperatures expected most of next week. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...As of early this morning, the low pressure center of this powerful mid-latitude cyclone is located over southern WI with its cold front extending SW over the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the OK/TX Panhandle region. The deep negatively- tilted upper level trough is aiding in a persistent band of heavy snow from NW Wisconsin through the Twin Cities metro, producing snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The western edge, however, is steadily shifting eastward, resulting in a stark difference in conditions from where it is snowing to where it isn't. Where snow has ended, visibilities have rapidly improved to 6-10 miles with even some breaks in the overcast coverage. As of 3am, have been able to clear northern and western portions of the WFO MPX coverage area from winter weather headlines, with the expectation that the remainder of the counties in the Blizzard Warning will be able to be cleared from the headlines by its scheduled 7am expiration, if not sooner. The low till quickly shift into southern New England by later today as high pressure moves across the Upper Midwest, allowing for sunshine by late morning through the rest of the daylight hours. Clear skies will remain in place through this evening, but clouds will return late tonight into Sunday morning as a clipper-type system shifts east along the international border. The leading-edge warm front of this system will extend to the southeast, with just enough isentropic lift and moisture to potentially briefly produce rain/snow showers over western WI. Chances are low and QPF will be only a few hundredths at best, so if this precipitation occurs, it will be of little consequence. As the warm front lifts north and ridging aloft glides through the region, much warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s, potentially the lower 50s along the IA border and around the Eau Claire area. A dry cold front will pass through the region Monday, resulting in a negligible drop in temperatures for parts of western and central MN but otherwise very similar to Sunday. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Another well-organized low pressure center, also containing a wintry mix of precipitation and stronger winds, is expected to impact the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday morning and lasting through Wednesday afternoon. This system will have its origin over CO/KS and, like the current system, be picked up by a large upper level trof moving onshore the west CONUS coast. The system is progged to shift northeast to near the Twin Cities by Wednesday morning with central pressure below 990mb, then continue moving northeast into southeast Canada by Thursday morning. The key factors will again be its track, thermal gradient and any low-level warm layers to cause p-types other than rain or snow. This system, much like the current one, will also have a high moisture content, leading to the potential for QPF in the 0.50-1.00" range, and potentially accumulating snow for at least western and central MN. It is still too early to determine specifics but this is where attention will be turned as the current system winds down. Behind this midweek system, high pressure will move expand over much of the central CONUS, allowing for at least a couple days to dry out in the latter part of the week. Temperatures will overall remain below normal for the latter portion of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 IFR/LIFR conditions with heavy snow and blowing snow overnight, but this will taper off from west to east and by morning most locations will have VFR conditions. Northerly winds will decrease toward morning, and take on a more southwest wind direction. KMSP... Heavy snow will continue through around 08Z, and then snow should begin to taper off and should exit the region by 10 or 11Z. Northerly winds will taper off on Saturday and become more southwest by evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming light/variable. SUN...VFR. Wind S becoming W 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan- Wright. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Freeborn. WI...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPC AVIATION...JRB