901 FXUS63 KDDC 010600 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 100 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...updated discussion and fire wx... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 111 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 High pressure will move east across the state today. Some good news associated with that is the winds are expected to be much weaker today. Dust shouldn't be a problem as well with the fairly light winds continuing through much of the day. Southerly winds will eventually resume on the backside of the departing high as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. Highs today should be near normal with values in the 60s. Dewpoints are expected to be slightly lower across far western Kansas. A marginal Red Flag Warning day exists across the 2 columns of Kansas counties. Compared to the last two days, the overall fire danger threat will be much lower today. For tonight, light downslope S to SW winds are expected to continue through the overnight hours. This should result in more mild lows with values in the upper 30s to lower 40s for much of the FA. Sunday will be a warmer day with highs in the 70s for much of the FA. Exception to this is lower 80s near the Oklahoma border. Some minor good news is that the MSLP gradient is expected to remain weak Sunday. Even though it will be warm and dry... fire danger should be lower given the weak MSLP gradient and resultant weak winds. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 111 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 A stationary front will develop across the state Monday. Downslope warmed air is expected across far southwest Kansas with upslope cooler air across the northern zones. Should be about a 10 to 15 degree temperature gradient across the FA for the beginning of the business week. For Tuesday, yet another synoptic low moves north of the FA. This will set the stage for more downsloping, strong winds, and high fire danger once again across southwest Kansas. Confidence in the deterministic models are is low at this point, but the overall pattern of us getting wind, dust, and fire danger looks like a distinct possibility. If we do get dryslotted, then our area would miss out on any meaningful precipitation associated with the main synoptic wave. Beyond Tuesday, we could see slightly below normal highs in the wake of the passing weather system. The EC does show another system moving across the area next Friday into Saturday. This system looks nothing that impressive. Higher BL moisture might be confined well south of the FA. Something to continue to monitor. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 VFR expected through TAF pd. NW winds decreasing overnight. Winds becoming light and variable tomorrow. S winds 10-20 kt by Saturday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 A dry airmass will continue to prevail across western Kansas today. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the teens to low 20s across western Kansas. Afternoon relative humidity is expected to bottom out in the 10 to 15 percent range. High pressure will shift off to the east with southerly winds becoming breezy and occasionally gusty. A marginal RFW day is expected across 2 columns of Kansas counties. Will let the marginal Red Flag Warning ride out for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 34 66 44 78 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 31 67 40 77 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 32 69 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 32 69 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 33 65 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 P28 39 65 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden FIRE WEATHER...Sugden