967 FXUS62 KMFL 010533 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 133 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The mid-level ridge will be the dominant feature for today and Saturday, although it will begin to breakdown on Saturday. Surface high pressure remains situated in the western Atlantic near the coast, leading to a consistent moderate easterly breeze. There is not a threat for showers today as a result of the high pressure and steady easterly winds plus the 12Z sounding today showed a much drier atmospheric column. The onshore flow for the east coast will lead to lower temperatures today in the low 80s whereas the west coast with offshore flow will see temps in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be reversed as the east coast will be warmer in the low to mid 70s and the interior/west coast will fall to the mid to upper 60s. As an upper level low traverses the Great Lakes and northeast US regions tomorrow, the surface high will shift further into the Atlantic with the mid-level ridge weakening. As the surface high shifts east, low level and surface flow will become more southerly and eventually southwesterly by Saturday afternoon. Furthermore, winds near the east coast will have a SE component to them in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. This will allow for convergence along the sea breeze boundary and thus increased potential for showers and isolated thunderstorm development in the eastern half of the CWA. Showers and storms would shift offshore and taper off in the late evening. The biggest concern will be periods of heavier rain, which would occur in the area of strongest convergence and right now that looks to be in the northern half of the east coast in Broward and Palm Beach counties. Temperatures should be uniform across South Florida in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Sunday into the early portion of next week, a frontal boundary will slowly drape south across the state and settle over South FL before washing out over the area by late Monday. This will result in a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday ahead of the front, and a better chance of showers and storms on Monday as the front settles over the area. Upper level ridging builds into the area Tuesday through the end of the week as upper level high pressure builds over the southern Gulf. Meanwhile, surface high pressure out in the Atlantic will result in an east to southeast flow across South FL. Overall drier conditions are expected, with PoPs remaining below 15%. Temperatures will be above normal all of next week, with highs generally in the middle 80s across the east coast metro, and around 90 over interior portions of SW FL. Overnight lows will be in the 60s inland, and low to mid 70s across the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Generally VFR though some afternoon/evening convection could bring brief bouts of sub-VFR to the east coast terminals. A gusty ESE wind flow becoming SW and then W through the period. Short-fused AMD are possible with convection. Confidence is too low to introduce any restrictions with this 06z issuance. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The moderate easterly winds continue through this afternoon and reached advisory thresholds in the Atlantic this morning. Winds become SE on Saturday and more southerly on Sunday. Wave heights are likely in the 4-6ft range today before falling this weekend to 3-5ft Saturday and under 3ft on Sunday. Gulf waters will peak at 1-3ft today and then 2ft or less over the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 A high risk for rip currents continues today with the sustained easterly winds. This risk will diminish over the weekend as winds turn more offshore to the south this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 72 87 72 / 30 10 20 10 West Kendall 87 67 89 68 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 86 69 88 70 / 30 20 20 10 Homestead 86 68 87 69 / 20 10 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 71 85 72 / 30 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 71 86 72 / 30 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 86 69 88 71 / 30 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 86 69 87 71 / 30 30 10 10 Boca Raton 86 69 86 71 / 30 30 20 10 Naples 87 72 86 70 / 10 10 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...RAG