448 FXUS61 KAKQ 150715 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure slowly builds toward the region from today through tonight. Breezy conditions will continue today, with diminishing winds expected tonight. Another cold front approaches and crosses the region late Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday... Low pressure just off the New England coast continues to track away from the area early this morning, with breezy WNW winds (10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph) across the area as CAA continues in the wake of the low. The Wind Advisory has been dropped. Skies are mostly clear, with SCT mid level clouds on the Ern Shore. Temperatures range from the mid-upper 20s in the Piedmont to lower- mid 30s elsewhere, and will drop a few more degrees between now and sunrise. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for far SE VA and NE NC until 9 AM. There will once again be an increase in WNW winds today as daytime mixing gets going, but it will not be as windy as it was yesterday. Winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph (highest on the Ern Shore). Temperatures will rise into the mid 50s inland, with lower 50s expected near the coast. Skies will be mainly sunny with perhaps FEW aftn CU. With continued downslope flow, dew points will likely fall into the single digits along and west of I-95, with teens expected closer to the coast. As a result, RHs will fall to 15- 20% inland/20-25% closer to the coast. Taking all of this into account, an Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for the entire area from 11 AM-7 PM (see Fire Wx section below for more details). Winds gradually diminish this evening-tonight as high pressure becomes centered over the area by early Thu AM by late tonight. With mainly clear skies and diminishing winds, went a bit cooler than NBM for lows. This results in forecast lows in the mid 20s across most of inland VA, with upper 20s-low 30s closer to the coast (mid to upper 30s in areas that are exposed to the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound). Have upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for far SE VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday... The high moves offshore on Thursday and winds turn around to the SSW. This will allow for a decent amount of low-level WAA, and forecast highs are generally in the lower-mid 60s under mostly sunny skies (with thin high clouds). This is a couple degrees higher than NBM and the statistical guidance continues to suggest temperatures near 70F along and west of I-95. Either way, it should be a very pleasant day. Remaining quite dry as dew points will initially be slow to recover (and will still be in the 20s during the aftn). RHs are progged to fall to 20-30% Thu aftn. However, the current forecast has winds a few mph below Increased Fire Danger thresholds Warmer with a bit of an increase in clouds Thu night with lows in the lower-mid 40s. Strong low pressure will track across the nrn Great Lakes on Friday, and will push a cold front close to the region. Friday will be the warmest day of the next week with increasing SW winds/WAA. Some light precip is possible across NW portions of the FA Fri aftn/evening as moisture moves in, but think it will be thickening/lowering clouds for most. Will continue to cap PoPs at 30- 40%. Forecast highs Fri range from the mid-upper 60s N/NW to lower- mid 70s SE. The cold front is progged to cross the region Fri night and a wave of low pressure will develop along it and track NE across the SE VA/NE NC coast. Rain chances increase from W-E Fri night, and have 70-90% PoPs area-wide (highest SE). Precipitation should end by midday Sat as cooler/drier air filters in from the WNW behind the front. A widespread 0.2-0.5" of rain is possible Fri night-Sat AM (highest amounts in SE VA). Temperatures will initially be slow to fall Fri night, but will quickly drop into the 40s-lower 50s by early Sat AM following the cold FROPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday... Cool/dry wx will prevail from Sat-Tue AM as high pressure slowly builds toward the area. The downslope component of the LLVL flow should temper the degree of cooling on Sat before another push of CAA arrives Sat night. Forecast highs Sat are in the mid 50s-60F with lows Sat night in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs on Sun/Mon are only in the upper 40s-lower 50s in most areas, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s-lower 30s Sun night, and upper 20s-upper 30s Mon night. The global models and their respective ensembles continue to indicate that a low pressure system will track into the region from the SW midweek next week. There are quite a bit of model differences with respect to the strength of the system, but there is the potential for widespread rain and breezy conditions along the coast by Tuesday-Wednesday. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions/dry wx will continue through the 06z TAF period. WNW winds will remain around 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt through today before gradually diminishing tonight as high pressure settles over the area. Skies will be mainly clear through the period, with FEW-SCT mid clouds possible at SBY from late morning-early evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday. A few showers are possible on Friday. A cold front will bring a better chc of rain (and flight restrictions) Friday night into Saturday morning. && .MARINE... As of 1000 PM EDT Tuesday... Extended Gale Warning through 4 AM EDT early Wed morning over the eastern VA rivers. Tightening pressure gradient between meandering strong coastal low just south of the Gulf of Maine (~984mb) and building high pressure over the mid -south is yielding a strong surge of NNW winds. Latest obs showing NNW winds 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-45 kt over the waters late this evening. Expect winds to slowly diminish from late tonight into midday Wed, but Gale force winds will persist through much of the night. As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday... Strong CAA on gusty WNW winds to 35-45 kt to continue over the local waters into Wed (brief 50 kt gusts possible over the nrn Ches Bay/ocean waters tonight)...then gradually decrease thereafter into Thu. Gales will be in place for the FA waters through Wed morning (except a SCA for the Currituck Sound until Wed evening)...(will lower to SCAs for the VA Rivers by late tonight). SCAs to likely replace the gales Wed afternoon/evening then fall off Wed night into Thu as speeds lower to 10-20 kt (seas are slow to fall to BLO 5 ft). Sub-SCA conditions are expected from later Thu morning through Fri in most if not all locations. Winds turn around to the SSW Thu aftn and increase late Thu night through Fri. SCAs are possible ahead of/w/ the next front Fri/Fri evening...and again behind the front this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... After coordination with state forestry and surrounding NWS offices, an Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for all of our MD, VA, and NC counties from 11 am through 7 pm today. Northwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph (highest NE, lower SW) are expected from late this morning into the afternoon. Minimum RH values range from 15 to 20 percent in most areas west of the Ches Bay/Hampton Roads with 20 to 25 percent to the east. Minimum RH of 25 to 30 percent is expected on the Eastern Shore. Residents are urged to exercise caution handling any potential ignition source. Virginia residents are reminded that open burning is prohibited before 4 pm each day through April 30th. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ092-093- 095>098. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ092-093- 095>098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/SW LONG TERM...CP/ERI AVIATION...ERI/RHR MARINE...ALB/MAM FIRE WEATHER...AKQ