398 FXUS64 KMOB 070601 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1201 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Ceiling and visbys will continue to lower tonight as low clouds and patchy dense fog develop. LIFR or lower conditions will be possible. Fog should dissipate and ceilings should begin to lift a little after sunrise, with VFR conditions returning in the late morning/early afternoon hours. /13 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Broad upper ridging will continue to extend across the northern Gulf Coast region through Tuesday afternoon. Surface high pressure across the northeast Gulf of Mexico will also continue, but a weak frontal boundary approaching the region from the north tonight will move into the northern tier of the forecast area Tuesday morning, and then should slip just south of US Highway 84 by late afternoon. The ongoing late afternoon convection should largely dissipate by this evening. However, we are expecting isolated to low-end scattered showers to persist through mid-evening across portions of inland southwest and south-central Alabama. With boundary layer moisture in place and decent radiational cooling expected overnight, some of the high-res models are indicating that areas of dense fog could again develop south of US Highway 84, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight if confidence increases. Additional isolated to scattered showers will move into our northern counties late tonight and migrate southward on Tuesday as weak shortwave impulses embedded in the broad upper ridge pass just north of the area and the weak surface boundary sags southward. There could be a thunderstorm or two late in the afternoon across the inland portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Much above normal temperatures will remain through the near term, and there is a good chance that we will set at least one new record high temperatures tomorrow. Lows tonight are only expected to settle in the mid 60s, with the exception of upper 60s near the beaches. The record high for March 7 at the Mobile Regional Airport is 82 degrees (last set in 2022), and the forecast high temperature is 84 degrees. The record high at the Pensacola International Airport is 83 degrees (set in 1992), and the forecast high temperature is 83 degrees. /22 SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 An upper ridge that has built north over the Mississippi River helps to deflect passing shortwave energy well north of the forecast area. This upper ridge also helps a surface ridge to build southwest along the Appalachians, restoring southerly flow to the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western half of the Southeast, and shifting a surface boundary that has stalled over the forecast area in the Near Term northward. Moisture levels creep up, topping out around 1.5". A series of upper level shortwaves move through the upper ridge, passing well north of the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night, with a second cold front approaching the forecast area from the north Thursday night. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms begin to affect areas north of Highway 84, but the majority of the convection is expected to remain north of the forecast area in the Short Term. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through this portion of the forecast, though increased cloud cover from the northward retreating surface boundary creates a southwest to northeast gradient in temperatures. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to range from mid 70s over the northern-most counties of the forecast area to low 80s over most of inland southeast Mississippi. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday night will see an uptick Thursday night as southerly flow ahead of the approaching front becomes more organized (with low temperatures ranging from around 60 to the mid 60s). /16 LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Guidance in the Extended remains inconsistent in the handling of a closed upper low moving east over the northern half of the Conus and its effects on the cold front moving over the forecast area Friday into Friday night. The latest GFS is advertising a stronger upper low moving on a more southerly track, with the passing surface front moving further over the Gulf of Mexico before stalling Friday night into Saturday than the latest ECMWF. Both are advertising the front retreating north a bit as a surface ridge redevelops over the East Coast before another cold front moves south across the forecast area Monday in response to an upper level shortwave trough passing north of the forecast area. With run to run and between model inconsistencies continuing, am taking a hint from the ensembles and shooting for the middle for the current forecast. This means temperatures above seasonal norms through the extended with rain showers and thunderstorms expected for the forecast area Friday into early Saturday, with another round Sunday through Monday. As for the possibility of strong to severe storms Friday, any warmer solution will lead to greater instability (which the op ECMWF has been consistently advertising). With respect to wind shear, all the guidance has been advertising marginal but sufficient wind shear for strong storms Friday into Friday. Will need to monitor. /16 MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023 Areas of dense fog may impact area bays and sounds and near shore waters over the next few nights, and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. Otherwise, a light southwesterly to westerly flow will persist through Tuesday night, becoming somewhat variable on Wednesday prior to a light onshore flow resuming Wednesday night and Thursday. A light southwesterly flow on Friday will shift to a moderate northwesterly to northerly flow Friday night into Saturday as a cold front moves through the area. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 84 65 81 64 79 66 79 / 10 20 0 10 0 20 0 40 Pensacola 68 83 66 77 64 74 68 77 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 30 Destin 68 79 65 77 63 74 66 77 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 10 30 Evergreen 63 83 60 77 56 76 61 77 / 20 20 0 10 10 30 20 60 Waynesboro 64 83 62 80 61 79 64 75 / 20 30 0 30 10 30 20 60 Camden 65 82 58 75 57 75 62 74 / 20 30 0 20 10 40 30 60 Crestview 64 86 61 81 57 78 61 81 / 0 20 0 10 0 20 10 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob