277 FXUS64 KLIX 021731 AAC AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1131 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 454 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 A warm and moist light southerly flow pattern continues across the region with early morning temperatures ranging in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Area surface observations are currently reporting good visibility over the area, but still cannot rule out some patchy early morning fog, mainly near the coast. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level storm system digging across the Desert Southwest early this morning and this feature is expected to translate toward west TX by late this afternoon before taking on a negative tilt and ejecting across the ArkLaTex and Mid- Mississippi Valley region tonight into Friday morning. An associated surface low will deepen over the ArkLaTex by this evening. Low level southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this system this evening with strong southwesterly winds expected to develop over the forecast area tonight into Friday morning courtesy of a strengthening low level jet and tightening MSLP gradient. Surface winds are expected to increase to 20-30 mph with gusts up to around 40 mph this evening through Friday morning, so we have issued a Wind Advisory for the entire area during this time. Generally expect dry weather conditions to prevail today, but there may be just enough weak ascent to aid in the development of isolated rain showers through this afternoon, mainly across our northern zones and possibly into coastal southeast MS. Attention tonight then turns to the ejecting upper level storm system over the ArkLaTex and the associated advancing surface front. The best forcing for ascent will mostly remain focused to our north and northwest tonight, but deep layer and low level shear will be still be quite strong across our area (850 mb low level jet still looks to strengthen to 55-65 kt overnight). CAM and high resolution short range model guidance generally shows instability waning with time this evening as a narrow region of forced ascent enters our CWA, although CAPE values may be maximized between 500-1000 J/KG right along the front. The available CAM guidance continues to show a thin convective line moving from west to east across the area generally between 3 AM and 9 AM early Friday morning. Forecast soundings show some capping in the mid levels which may inhibit convective growth, so the overall severe potential may be decreasing with time as the line moves east. The latest Day 1 outlook from SPC keeps a Slight risk of severe weather in place over our northwestern zones tonight, with the risk Marginal over the rest of the CWA. Damaging gusts will remain the main concern with the line tonight into early Friday morning, although a tornado is also possible. Dry weather conditions are then expected from late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. (WFO MOB) && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 454 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 A drier southwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft prevails through the weekend with a surface ridge of high pressure also settling over the area. There may be enough moisture return with impulses in the flow aloft to bring low rain chances back into the forecast by the early to middle part of next week. Cooler morning lows in the 40s and 50s are expected this weekend before warming back into the 60s early next week. Likewise, highs in the 70s to near 80 this weekend should trend upward back into the 80s by early next week. (WFO MOB) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 Winds and clouds will be on the increase ahead of a cold front later today and tonight. Winds will shift from southerly to a more westerly direction from west to east. Some gusts may top 30kts at times tonight and early Friday. Otherwise, a low chance for convection is there, but a bit too low to mention in this package. It wouldn't be impossible to need VCs later this evening if confidence in convection increases a bit.With the strong winds just off the deck there may be LLWS added, however, it remains just under the min thresholds for now. Otherwise, MVFR anticipated overnight before lifting by mid morning on Friday. (Frye-LIX) && .MARINE... Issued at 454 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 Onshore flow will strengthen over the marine this afternoon as a potent storm system lifts out of the Plains. Expect strong south to southwest winds to develop this evening into Friday morning, with gusts to gale force possible. We maintained the Gale Watch for all marine zones this evening through early Friday morning given the continued potential for gusts over 35 knots and let later shifts assess the latest data to determine if upgrade to Warning is needed. Seas are still likely to build to 7-12 feet offshore. Winds will gradually diminish by late Friday. Hazardous seas will continue through late Friday before subsiding into the weekend. Beyond Saturday, mostly favorable marine conditions are forecast with high pressure building into the region. (WFO MOB) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 82 61 72 46 / 20 50 20 0 BTR 86 63 75 49 / 10 50 0 0 ASD 84 68 77 52 / 20 10 20 0 MSY 82 69 76 56 / 20 20 20 0 GPT 77 69 76 53 / 20 10 30 0 PQL 82 70 79 51 / 20 10 30 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>088-090. GM...Gale Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Friday morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for MSZ068>071-077-080>082. GM...Gale Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Friday morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...WFO MOB LONG TERM...WFO MOB AVIATION...RDF LIX MARINE...WFO MOB