522 FXUS63 KTOP 270516 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Key Points: - Thunderstorms tonight, some could be severe with damaging wind. - Gusty winds Monday. - Cooler to end the week, with more chances for precipitation. Cloud cover continues to stream north as southerly winds bring increasing moisture to the area. Thicker cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit cooler today across eastern Kansas. This will do little more than ensure we remain well capped through the day, limiting any thunderstorm potential to late this evening as the main system moves overhead. The surface and upper-level lows currently over southeast Colorado will push into central Kansas by the late evening hours. A line of severe storms is expected to develop across south central Kansas this evening as a result. This line will race northeastward into our area in the 10pm to 2am timeframe. While we remain capped and instability across our area looks minimal (~200 J/Kg), the shear profile of the atmosphere will be quite impressive (0-6 km shear around 60-80 knots). This large amount of shear and strong forcing associated with a very dynamic low pressure system should be enough to offset the cap and missing CAPE to produce some severe storms. The main threat will be damaging winds this evening with the strong forcing and downward momentum transfer of higher winds aloft aided by heavy rainfall. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be possible, generally along and south of I-35. Parameters aren't quite as favorable further north, but some wind gusts to 60 mph can't be ruled out for locations north of I-35. Additionally, lightning, very heavy rainfall and some small hail are possible with storms this evening. Forecast PWATs are around record values for Feb, with much of the area expected to see between an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall. Storm motions should be fast enough to mitigate the flooding risk. Steep pressure rises on the back side of the departing system will lead to a tight pressure gradient, so strong winds will linger into Monday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for a portion of the area as a result. Westerly flow aloft keeps us mild for most of the week, with several storm systems passing nearby. The 12 UTC suite of long- range models keeps most of the precipitation associated with a passing wave on Wednesday to our north, but nudges the Thursday/Friday system into our area a bit. This could bring some light rain/snow to the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Widespread shra and isolated tsra will continue through 08Z then become more scattered. The main area of shra will move out of the MHK terminal by 07Z and the TOP and FOE areas by 08Z, however precipitation on the backside of the mid level low will bring scattered shra through 10Z. MVFR and IFR cigs are expected through 11Z then improving to VFR by 14Z. Winds increase from the west southwest after 09Z at MHK and around 12Z at TOP and FOE. Wind speeds near 24kts with gusts to 35kts will decrease after 00Z to around 13kts from the northwest. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ040-054>056-058-059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...53