250 FXUS64 KMAF 242321 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 521 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 319 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Current satellite shows the eastern third of the CWA still stuck under low cloud cover and temperatures in the 30s. Farther west temperatures have increased into the 40s and 50s north of I-10 and the 60s and 70s to the south. Models have not handled the strength of the cold air very well, certainly nothing new, and in particular the ensemble NBM guidance has not performed well at all. It continues its warm bias with the latest run and the short term forecast out to 12Z Sunday is weighted closer to NAM MET guidance as well as other ensemble guidance. The low clouds over the eastern Permian Basin will spread back west overnight and remain firmly in place throughout the day on Saturday. Therefore with no clearing, temperatures will struggle to rise in the afternoon keeping highs in the 40s and 50s. Clear skies in the western portions of the CWA will experience a pleasant Saturday. Overrunning moisture continues Saturday night and low level saturation may allow for fog and light drizzle to form. The NBM handles temps better for lows but still undercut the guidance by a couple of degrees. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Confidence continues to remain high for a major wind storm on Sunday. By Sunday morning, an upper lvl trough will be approaching the 4 Corners region with increasing southwesterly flow overspreading West TX and southeast NM. The 850-700 hpa jet will strengthen into the afternoon as the 500 hpa shrtwv trough approaches the region. Wind speeds will likely already be approaching high wind criteria across the western half of the region Sunday afternoon and strong winds will continue to overspread the region into Sunday evening as a Pacific cold front races ewd. Most model guidance including the MET, MAV, and NBS are indicating sustained speeds around 35-45 mph with gusts approaching 60-75 mph in the plains. The MET and MAV are even showing a ridiculous 50-70 mph sustained at GDP with gusts approaching 95 to 100 mph. This is pretty rare territory even for GDP standards. Compressional downslope warming will result in highs reaching well above normal into the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the region. Late Sunday evening into Sunday night as the Pacific cold front reaches the far eastern Permian Basin, a line of thunderstorms could develop. This will be highly dependent on where the cold front and the dryline collision occurs, but the best chances for thunderstorms will be mainly east of the forecast area across the Low Rolling Plains and Concho Valley. Our period of chaotic weather will finally come to an end on Monday with cooler temperatures expected in the wake of the Pacific cold front. High winds could last through early Monday morning across the Guadalupe and Davis mountains. Very dry air will filter into the region on Monday as westerly winds prevail. West to southwesterly flow aloft will carry through much of next week, bringing steadily warming temperatures as highs remain mostly in the 70s and lower 80s through Wednesday. Periods of high winds are expected to continue Tuesday through Thursday at GDP as the mid-lvl jet remains stout. The next upper lvl trough will begin to dig across the Intermountain West on Thursday and drag a cold front through the area. Right now this system looks to bring more wind and little in regards to precipitation chances. Temperatures will cool back down to near normal by Friday in the wake of a cold front. -Salerno && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 VFR conditions continue at most terminals with light southeast and east winds. MAF has fallen to MVFR ceilings already this evening. Other terminals are expected to fall to MVFR ceilings early tonight from east to west with MAF, HOB, and FST expected to fall to IFR ceilings by early tomorrow. Fog may also develop at these terminals but the best confidence of fog developing is at HOB at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 A stalled cold front will keep temperatures well below normal along and north of the Pecos River through Saturday. Much of the region will see very good to excellent through Sunday morning. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize Sunday afternoon with the arrival of a potent storm system. RFTIs will increase to around 5 or critical across much of the region Sunday afternoon and evening due to the strong winds, however the lowest relative humidity (below 15 percent) will be confined to areas south of the Pecos River, mainly across the Big Bend Region. In addition, ERCs are forecast remain in the 50th to 70th keeping the potential for significant wildfires low. Therefore we will hold off on issuing a watch. A cold front will pass through the region late Sunday night bringing much drier air into the area. Minimum humidity will remain less than 15 percent for much of the area from Monday onwards with poor overnight recover anticipated. This will result in periods of elevated to near critical fire weather through much of next week. -Salerno && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 33 46 45 87 / 0 20 10 10 Carlsbad 37 60 49 71 / 0 10 10 10 Dryden 45 56 53 86 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Stockton 41 60 54 86 / 0 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 42 62 52 63 / 0 10 10 10 Hobbs 33 52 47 75 / 0 20 10 10 Marfa 40 72 49 80 / 0 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 34 47 46 84 / 0 20 10 10 Odessa 35 47 46 81 / 0 20 10 10 Wink 38 55 51 81 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin- Midland-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County- Southern Lea County. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...91