162 FXUS62 KCAE 241922 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 222 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push in from the north late Friday, bringing showers and cool northerly winds that linger into Saturday. Following cooler and dreary conditions Saturday, we will warm back up quickly for Sunday and Monday. Another a weak front will cross the area early Tuesday, bringing another short lived shot of slightly cooler air before well above average temps return again. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Satellite imagery early this afternoon showing partly cloudy skies across the region. Surface analysis shows a weak surface cold front neatly draped from southwest to northeast across our CWA, which can be approximately inferred by the northernmost extend of the thickest cloud cover. Dewpoints are on the drier side (40s and 50s) north of this boundary, and much wetter (60s) to the south. Along those lines, temperatures have been quite warm so far as well, with values reaching the mid and upper 70s and a couple places touching 80. A few weak echoes are beginning to show up on radar south of Columbia, but the bulk of precip remains well to our west at the moment. The front will continue to increase cloud cover into this evening along with increasing chances of showers. Showers are expected to begin across the CSRA and continue spreading northeast into the overnight hours as the front sinks south and southwest flow aloft increases. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon over the southern Midlands and CSRA, where some limited instability in the form of a couple hundred joules of CAPE are possible. This threat will likely wane into the nighttime hours as heating diminishes. Scattered to numerous showers are expected overnight into early Saturday. Despite nearly overcast skies and precip, cold air advection behind the front should be strong enough for temperatures to dip into fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s by the time the sun begins to rise Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will slide into the NE CONUS early Saturday, further driving northerly level flow down the eastern spine of the Appalachians. With the general upper level pattern remaining fairly unchanged, ridge over GoM and troughiness in the W CONUS, we will continue to have west-southwest flow over the area. So wedge-like conditions will develop as we have moderate isentropic lift over the low level northerly cold advection. Showers are expected to be fairly widespread for much of the day; high temps should remain in the 50's across the area but pushing into the mid 60's in the CSRA, south of the wedge front. The upper ridge axis will remain quasi-steady over the GoM Sunday and as the strong jet quickly forces the surface high over New England east, we will rapidly scour out any lingering wedge conditions. West-northwest flow from the surface-500mb will encourage downsloping and some dry advection, so PoPs drop off for Sunday and high temps will climb into the mid 70's again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A sharp trough over the central US will dampen the ridge amplitude over the eastern US as we head into early next week. By Monday, flow will turn more westerly ahead of this trough so temps will again climb well above average, possibly into the low 80's. The trough will push through a weakening front late Monday into Tuesday. PoPs remain limited with this front due to limited dynamical forcing and poor diurnal timing. This weak front is not expected to do much to temps, as downsloping flow and strong solar heating will offset any cold advection. The warmth will continue into late week as deep ridging develops again ahead another system late next week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR generally expected through the evening hours, with MVFR and IFR quickly developing later tonight as wedge conditions settle into the region. Surface front has made it through almost every TAF site now, with northerly and northeasterly winds signaling the coming wedge tomorrow. You wouldn't really know a front passed, though, as conditions are fair and quite warm at all TAF sites. We had some brief MVFR restrictions with the passing front earlier, but these have generally thinned out and lifted. We'll continue to see this front sink south of OGB through the day, leaving all sites prone to the expectant wedging on Saturday. So this afternoon, isolated showers are expected to continue developing along and south of this front, likely leading to a stray shower that could impact AGS/DNL/OGB, but this looks increasingly like it won't happen. Tonight, though, mid-level clouds will increase across the region, with showers likely developing as a 700 hPa shortwave moves out of the TN Valley and to our north. This will result in some weak lift through Saturday morning, forcing scattered to numerous showers across the region, starting between 21z and 00z this evening. This will likely last through around 10z-12z at all sites, with some showers at AGS/DNL being heavy enough to bring brief visibility restrictions. After the rain passes, subsidence behind the shortwave is forecast by guidance to combine with a surface wedge to yield MVFR and IFR ceilings across at all sites. There is some uncertainty as to how low the ceilings go, with a wide spread in guidance (the usually aggressive NAM has only MVFR cigs with the LAMP showing a period of LIFR). Still, this is a very favorable setup for low cigs across the region and that is what I am forecasting tomorrow. We should see IFR settle into the TAF sites by 12z tomorrow, with drizzle likely common despite the heavier showers pushing out of the area. Winds through the period will be out of the northeast between 4 and 8 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The wedge should begin to break by Saturday night. Better conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday before the next storm system brings potential restrictions Monday night into Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$