208 FXUS62 KCAE 240844 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 344 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A front will push through the region today bringing cooler and rainy conditions that will last through Saturday. Warming pattern begins again Sunday into Monday ahead of our next front on Tuesday, followed by another period of anomalous warmth. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Skies have cleared out across much of the forecast area early this morning. However, this break from the clouds will be short lived as cloudiness associated with an approaching cold front move in from the west. Earlier showers over the northern Midlands have dissipated and the region should be dry through the overnight hours. Temperatures have struggled to decrease so far tonight but should fall into the lower to mid 60s by daybreak. It will be mostly cloudy today as a weakening cold front moves through the forecast area. The front will bring an increasing chance of showers as the day goes on starting in the CSRA and spreading northeast. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon over the southern Midlands and CSRA where warm air advection aloft will combine with dewpoints in the 60s to create an area of limited instability. Temperatures will be warm again today but cooler than the record breaking heat from yesterday due to the clouds and eventual showers. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s north and west to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees in the south and east. Scattered to numerous showers are likely to continue into the overnight hours. Cold air advection on the north side of the front will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s despite the clouds and showers. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday and Saturday night...Surface high pressure is expected to be centered over the northeast Saturday, causing northerly winds to funnel into South Carolina for much of the day. At 850 mb, warm air advection is also forecast, leading to a wedge scenario for the region. The resulting wedge is expected to affect the sensible weather in a couple of ways: 1) cloudy and showery conditions and 2) a sharp temperature gradient setting up just south of where the frontal boundary is located. Latest guidance remains in good agreement that this boundary sets up in the CSRA vicinity. Highs for the day are dependent on the exact location of this boundary. Currently, have highs in the low to mid 50s for much of the region with mid to upper 60s in the Georgia counties of the forecast area. Showers wind down overnight with temperatures staying mild, generally in the lower to mid 50s. Sunday and Sunday night...The surface high that is forecast to be over the northeast on Saturday is expected to have translated eastward out to sea. Meanwhile a surface high develops over the Gulf Coast. A combination of these will allow for the winds to become more westerly, essentially ending the wedge conditions over the region. Temperatures rebound to above average once again, with highs reaching the 70s across the Midlands and CSRA. Another mild night is also in store as lows range in mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper trough is forecast to propagate from the Four Corners region, through the central U.S., and into the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone and cold front are expected to develop as the trough treks across the country. This front is forecast to move into the region Monday evening, weakening as it approaches. However, guidance has increased the precipitation chances a bit, so have included a slight chance of showers for much of the region. As the front passes, there is a small window of higher instability, which could produce a few thunderstorms should shower activity develop. That said, left thunderstorms out of the forecast for the time being as confidence is too low. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be warm and relatively quiet ahead of the next system forecast to arrive on Thursday. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low Ceilings are Likely to Develop again this Morning.... Partial clearing has been observed at the terminals early this morning. However, this break from the clouds will be short lived as cloudiness associated with an approaching cold front move in from the west. Ceilings are expected to fall this morning with MVFR restrictions most likely at OGB/AGS/DNL where there is better moisture available. Shower chances increase through the day starting at the Augusta terminals around midday before spreading northeast to CAE/CUB/OGB in the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at OGB/AGS/DNL but confidence is not high enough to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Ceilings should return to VFR at the terminals this afternoon before dropping once again Friday night as wedge conditions develop. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A wedge setup is looking possible on Saturday and Saturday night with elevated potential for widespread restrictions. Better conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday before the next storm system brings possible restrictions Monday night into Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$