669 FXUS62 KCAE 212344 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 644 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will slide towards the area the remainder of Tuesday, bringing an outside chance at some showers. Strengthening low pressure to our west and a strong ridge to our south will force the boundary back north by Wednesday afternoon and help drive temps into the 80's for Wednesday and Thursday. Another front will bring cooler and wetter conditions starting Friday evening into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pressure ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico east across Florida. Trough across the western Carolinas. This is resulting a relatively tight pressure gradient across the area and winds have been gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. There is a stalled front to the north across North Carolina. Moisture is higher across the CSRA and south Midlands...and a few showers have developed in weakly unstable air mass in east central Ga. The showers are being enhanced by a weak short wave trough moving east in fast zonal flow aloft. At the surface...it appears a warm front is developing in east-central Ga. Stronger lift appears to be well north of the region across NC/VA associated with 160+ east- west upper jet. The scattered showers are expected to move east through the afternoon...mainly across the CSRA and southeast Midlands where precipitable water is around 1.5 inches. The warm front will lift north overnight...and low level moisture convergence may increase. The CAM models suggest scattered/widely scattered showers will move into the Midlands during the evening...so put in low pops. Warm advection resulting in temperatures in the 70s this afternoon. With the warm front lifting north overnight, the temperatures may rise overnight a bit but went close to the consensus near 60. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The residual front will lift quickly north by Wednesday morning as strengthening 850-700mb warm advection ramps up. The deepening upper ridge to our south and the digging troughs out west will steadily amplify the pattern through the day; 500mb heights will rise to near or exceeding record highs along with near record warm 850mb temps near 16C. Surface dew points will climb into the 60's by morning and fairly thick cloud cover will continue over the area. But given the warm advection and warm 850-700mb temps, afternoon high temps should approach record highs, in the low 80's. Overnight lows heading into Thursday will also remain near record warm, in the mid 60's, thanks to strengthening surface winds, thick cloud cover, and warm advection. There is not too much change in the thinking for Thursday with the upper ridge shifting further north towards our area. Strong westerly-southwesterly will continue but warm advection will actually weaken a bit at 850mb as the flow turns more westerly. Guidance has trended a little bit cooler for afternoon high temps thanks to some amplified shortwaves riding the ridge, increasing cloud cover and potential for some showers. However, high temps are still expected to make it into the mid 80's, exceeding daily record highs but potentially not reaching February record max of 86. The EC EFI and NAEFS have trended towards the slightly cooler, yet still very warm solution. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement with a slight relaxation of the pattern for Friday and Saturday. A cold front is progged to push through sometime during the afternoon on Friday, increasing precip chances and throwing a tricky wrench in the high temps forecast pending when the front and precip moves in. Surface ridging will build in for Saturday with strong low level cold advection running down the east coast. Since the upper-mid flow pattern will not change all that much, we will keep the fairly strong southwest overrunning, cloud cover, and precip chances. So confidence is increasing in wedge-like conditions Saturday with rain chances and below average temps. Since the pattern aloft remains steady, the wedge will erode by early next week and well above average temps are expected again. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected for the beginning of the period, with MVFR and IFR cigs expected (at varying times) between 09z and 18z at all TAF sites. Mid and high level cloud cover has dominated the weather across all TAF sites today. AGS and DNL saw some showers earlier associated with westerly flow atop the area, but these showers have diminished in coverage. All sites are currently VFR. A strong surface low is expected to develop to our west tonight and begin picking up the weak surface front that has push near or just south of the forecast area. This is forecast by guidance to become a pseudo-warm front across the region, and along and south of it, strong warm air and moisture advection is expected to push northward. This is likely to be the driving factor in stratus developing later tonight. Guidance has been trending towards this today, with varying degrees of restriction intensity and length of time in restrictions forecast. The expectation is that we'll cool off pretty well this evening, and then as moisture increases, first near AGS/DNL and then spreading northward, ceiling restrictions will follow. Expecting this to start between 08z and 10z at AGS/DNL, lasting through 15z-17z. At CAE/CUB/OGB, somewhere in the 10z-12z range, lasting through 14-16z. I have predominant BKN015, with a TEMPO to OVC008, but this could be flipped as more guidance comes in and confidence in predominant IFR increases. There is a chance at some VIS restrictions being in there, but a low-level jet of 20+ knots at all sites really made me steer more towards stratus. As a result, I do include a drop to MVFR cigs in the TEMPO but think it will generally be brief. After the stratus clears by midday, we'll quickly see skies improve and will start mixing down that strong low level jet. Expect winds out of the south-southwest between 10 and 20 knots during the afternoon hours tomorrow. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Early morning restrictions are possible Thursday. A cold front will approach later this week bringing periodic restrictions. A wedge setup is looking possible on Saturday and Saturday night, which would cause restrictions at area TAF sites. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Wed, Feb 22 Augusta, GA: 83 (2018, 2011) Columbia, SC: 83 (2018) Record Highs for Thur, Feb 23 Augusta, GA: 84 (2022) Columbia, SC: 82 (2018, 1962) All Time February High Temperature Records Augusta, GA: 88 (2021, 2022) Columbia, SC: 86 (2021) && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... CLIMATE...