621 FXUS64 KMAF 171118 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 518 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 247 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Upper level ridging currently building across the Four Corners slides overhead through this afternoon, with a quick-moving shortwave following right behind it for Saturday morning. After a very chilly morning, surface high pressure shifts eastward into this afternoon, bringing surface winds back to the south. Today's highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, though some high clouds limit us from our full potential some. With the shortwave moving in tonight into tomorrow morning, it will supply ample mid- level moisture and lift which could support some precipitation, especially for the higher terrain west of the Pecos. Given the best precip chances lie during the diurnal minimum and lows falling into the upper 20s to the mid 30s, some snow may mix in with rain, especially across the higher elevations. Despite the plentiful mid level moisture, the surface will be very dry, likely limiting most precip from falling all the way to the surface at first. In areas of heavier precipitation, wet-bulbing could bring temperatures down as the sub-cloud layer saturates, favoring snow more than rain. Regardless of what p-type falls, between the dry low-levels and quick-moving nature of the shortwave, QPF amounts stay little to none. At best, overpasses and elevated could see a light dusting of snow in the higher terrain by Saturday morning. While the shortwave quickly lifts northeastward throughout the day, cloud cover sticks around through much of the afternoon. Continued southerly flow helps temperatures rise into the mid to upper 50s east of the Pecos while those across the western high terrain see a more westerly wind, with downsloping effects pushing highs into the && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 247 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Next week looks windy yet again and starts with warm temperatures before cooling late in the week. Subtropical ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will nose into Texas helping bring a return to above normal temperatures. Southwesterly, downslope flow at the surface along with increasing mid level heights will allow temperatures to rise well into the 70s/80s for several days beginning Sunday. High winds are also likely to begin in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains Sunday and last through much of next week. An upper trough over the Baja will be slow to eject next week as the ridge in the Gulf blocks it from moving east. This trough finally begins to move toward the region Tuesday before quickly lifting into the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday. A Pacific front will accompany this system as will a slight chance of rain. Similar to the trough this past week, moisture and instability will be lacking so don't expect much precipitation. Very strong winds will be possible behind this trough with >50 mph gusts looking likely for the majority of the area at this time. Along with the wind will be plenty of blowing dust so will continue to mention even though this event is several days out. After the very warm start to the week, a stronger cold front will backdoor into the region Thursday helping to send temperatures back below normal to finish out the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 VFR prevails throughout the period. Light and somewhat variable winds this morning become dominantly southeasterly this afternoon as surface high pressure moves to our east. Upper level clouds continue to stream in throughout the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 50 32 56 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 48 30 64 39 / 0 0 20 0 Dryden 50 33 57 39 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 51 34 64 46 / 0 10 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 43 32 55 42 / 0 10 30 0 Hobbs 47 29 59 36 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 49 28 60 36 / 0 20 30 0 Midland Intl Airport 49 32 57 39 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 49 33 57 39 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 49 32 61 37 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...16