080 FXUS65 KVEF 142108 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 108 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Chilly weather conditions will continue across the region through Wednesday with gusty north winds and unseasonably cool temperatures expected. Cold weather will settle into the area through Friday with a warming trend expected over the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night. A low pressure system is forecast to be centered over southwest Utah and northwest Arizona by late this evening and then near the Four Corners region by late Wednesday morning. Expect strong northerly winds to continue through Wednesday morning before winds subside somewhat but remain windy Wednesday afternoon. High Wind Warnings continue for the Owens Valley and San Bernardino County until 4 pm this afternoon with widespread Wind Advisories in effect through 10 am Wednesday morning. Winter weather headlines are highlighted for much of Mohave County through 11 pm MST this evening. A Winter storm warning is in effect for the Arizona Strip with Winter Weather Advisories in effect for central and southern Mohave County for elevations above 4000 feet. Look for the weather on Wednesday to be sunny and dry with unseasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds. The strongest winds are expected in the morning as advisories continue but it will feel quite chilly all day as temperatures remain around 10-15 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. Thursday morning will start out quite cold, with relaxing pressure gradients and clearing skies aiding in radiational cooling overnight. This could allow for a hard freeze across central and southern Mohave county, especially given the potential for snow accumulations in some of the higher terrain. Given the potential, have gone ahead with a Hard Freeze Watch for parts of Mohave County around the Kingman area for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Otherwise, Thursday will bring a break in the action as a progressive shortwave ridge slides overhead and winds relax. As noted by previous shifts, any warming associated with the ridge will likely be at the higher elevations, while cold air remains trapped in the valleys. Increasing southerly winds aloft on Friday ahead of low pressure nearing the central California coast will help mix out the valleys a bit, but despite a few degrees of warming, temperatures will be well below normal for mid February. Models still differ on where the incoming low will go over the weekend. Several perturbations keep it offshore through Sunday or even Monday, while others swing it inland over the Mojave Desert. The compromise solution favored by the NBM on this run takes it south of our CWA on a track similar to the one that passed by last weekend. This results in slight chance PoPs across the southern half or so of the CWA Saturday and Sunday, followed by a drying trend Monday as the low departs to the east. If this solution pans out, temperatures would also climb nearly to normal. Alternative scenarios include the low tracking over the Mojave Desert, which would bring much colder temperatures along with rain and snow showers, and the low meandering offshore for days, which would bring mostly dry weather with temperatures rising to near normal. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northwest winds will continue tonight through Wednesday morning before beginning to diminish Wednesday afternoon. Lower clouds and light showers associated with a cold front will start to lift and breakup this evening giving way mostly clear skies on Wednesday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...A potent cold front will continue to slide south, exiting the area early this evening. Lower ceilings and light showers associated with the front will begin to lift and breakup this evening over southern Nevada and southeast California. tonight. It will take longer for ceilings to lift and showers to dissipate for northwest Arizona. Strong westerly wind with gusts in excess of 50 kts and blowing dust across the western Mojave Desert will diminish this evening. Elsewhere, northerly winds will stay gusty overnight into Wednesday morning before diminishing Wednesday afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salmen LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Pierce For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter