235 FXUS65 KABQ 010002 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 502 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 213 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 Areas of low clouds and patchy freezing fog are forecast to return to or persist over much of the eastern plains again tonight, but they should evaporate fairly quickly on Wednesday morning as downslope flow develops. A storm system passing mainly to the south of NM is forecast to produce a light mix of wintry precipitation over southern areas Wednesday through Thursday morning. A warming trend is forecast during the latter half of the week with high temperatures climaxing Sunday a few to around 10 degrees above normal. West and northwest winds are forecast to become breezy to windy on Monday, when an upper level trough crossing the central Rockies could also produce some snow showers north of I-40. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 213 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 While fog and wintry precipitation have decreased or ended this afternoon, low clouds continue to be widespread over the eastern plains. Models suggest low clouds will continue to improve but it's difficult to believe given how extensive it is as of this writing and the higher clouds starting to traverse southeast into east central NM in advance of the upper low centered over the Gulf of California. Light west winds are forecast to develop later tonight over portions of the northeast and east central which might help keep the low clouds or at least fog, less extensive as in previous nights. Ultimately took a compromise between models and obs for tonight. Forecast models are still having some differences how far north into eastern NM the upper low's influence will reach in terms of precipitation. The GFS remains too far south for anything in our CWA while the NAM12 and ECMWF suggest some light precipitation in the southeast and south central and possibly into De Baca and Curry counties Wednesday and Wednesday night. Leaned a bit more toward the NAM12/ECMWF solution in the grids. Over northwest/west central NM, scattered to broken cloud cover looks to slowly thin out later tonight into Wednesday morning with little snow anticipated. Temperatures tonight through Wednesday night remain mostly below normal. Will pass on any advisory type highlights at this time, but later shifts will need to monitor conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 213 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 As an upper level trough exits eastward across TX, a few rain and snow showers may linger into Thursday across southeast parts of the forecast area, but little or no additional accumulation is expected. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to warm a few to 17 degrees above Wednesday's readings in most places, while remaining near normal to as much as 11 degrees below normal. Thursday's warming trend will continue Friday, and across the bulk of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday, as a couple of low amplitude ridges of high pressure cross from the west with a weak intervening upper trough and associated Pacific front. This will result in some gusty winds over the weekend, especially along and east of the central mountain chain where a lee side surface trough is also forecast to develop. By Sunday afternoon high temperatures should vary from a few to around 10 degrees above normal with the greatest departures over southern and eastern areas. An upper level trough is forecast to cross the central Rockies from the northwest on Monday with potentially strong winds over NM, a gusty Pacific cold front, and colder temperatures at least over northern and western areas. There will also be a chance for snow showers north of I-40 Monday afternoon and night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 440 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 As a weak upper-level low continues to churn over southwest AZ tonight, scattered to broken mid- level clouds will continue over west- central and northwest NM until around 01/12Z while multi layered clouds increase over se and east central NM with continued potential for low clouds and light snow or a mix of light precipitation overnight. Shower chances increase over southern Chaves county Wednesday afternoon, possibly impacting the KROW terminal as the above mentioned low lifts to the northeast across southeast NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2023 A few showers will be possible over northwest and west central New Mexico this evening with very little precipitation. Low clouds are expected tonight with fog, freezing fog and spotty and light wintry precipitation possible over portions of eastern New Mexico. Rain, snow, and freezing drizzle will continue over far southern areas Wednesday and Wednesday night with colder than normal temperatures areawide. Dry west to northwest flow aloft will dominate Friday and through the weekend with locally breezy to windy conditions over the central mountain chain and east, near to above normal temperatures over all and occasional clouds. Ventilation Wednesday will be poor with the exception of localized fair to good rates over portions of central New Mexico. Widespread poor ventilation rates forecast Thursday through Sunday with some localized fair to good rates over east central New Mexico Friday and along the Northeast Highlands Saturday. Mostly good to excellent ventilation expected as a more substantial upper low pressure system impacts the region early next week with potential for strong winds, colder temperatures and snow showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 12 35 10 38 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 4 36 6 41 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 12 38 10 39 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 9 39 7 42 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 12 38 11 43 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 9 40 6 46 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 16 41 15 43 / 5 5 5 0 Magdalena....................... 23 43 22 46 / 0 5 5 0 Datil........................... 19 41 18 44 / 0 5 5 0 Reserve......................... 20 48 18 53 / 5 10 10 0 Glenwood........................ 28 50 25 57 / 0 10 10 0 Chama........................... 3 33 5 40 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 20 40 19 41 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 19 43 18 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 5 36 3 41 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 5 36 5 39 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 0 35 -5 38 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 7 39 4 42 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 14 43 15 47 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 14 46 12 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 19 43 17 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 17 45 15 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 27 45 24 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 25 47 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 17 49 14 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 23 47 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 21 50 18 51 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 21 47 20 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 17 49 15 51 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 22 48 20 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 19 49 16 51 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 22 44 21 44 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 24 46 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 26 50 23 51 / 0 5 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 22 41 20 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 23 43 21 44 / 0 0 5 0 Edgewood........................ 19 43 17 44 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 13 45 11 47 / 0 0 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 17 41 17 43 / 0 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 20 45 19 46 / 5 5 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 22 47 21 47 / 5 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 28 50 25 51 / 5 20 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 25 41 24 45 / 10 30 20 20 Capulin......................... 13 41 12 43 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 10 45 10 48 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 11 45 13 51 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 13 44 15 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 14 46 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 12 44 17 50 / 0 0 5 0 Conchas......................... 15 46 19 53 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 18 45 20 51 / 0 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 18 46 20 51 / 0 5 10 5 Clovis.......................... 20 41 23 51 / 5 20 20 10 Portales........................ 21 42 24 53 / 5 20 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 21 42 23 53 / 0 10 10 10 Roswell......................... 24 39 25 56 / 10 40 20 20 Picacho......................... 22 42 26 53 / 10 30 20 10 Elk............................. 23 41 25 51 / 20 40 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...33