276 
FXUS64 KMEG 260537
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Colder temperatures will arrive overnight with morning lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s across the Mid-South. By this weekend, warmer
temperatures and higher moisture values are expected until a cold
front on Sunday brings the chance for rain. A wet and unsettled
pattern is expected to persist through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

The low pressure system that brought wintry precipitation to the
Mid-South on Tuesday has continued to move northeast, allowing for
precipitation chances to decrease across the region. An
accompanying cold front has brought northwest winds to the Mid-
South, with colder temperatures arriving overnight. This cold air
will stick around through Thursday, with high temperatures 
struggling to reach 40 in a few places. 

A change in weather patterns comes on Friday as a shortwave trough
forms over the Great Lakes Region and moves just to the north of
the TN/KY state border. Guidances are showing the potential for
strong winds to develop along the northern portions of the CWA,
with NBM 4.1 showing a 40-50% probability of 40mph gusts in 
portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. 
Elsewhere in the Mid-South, increased temperatures and moisture 
values are expected Friday as southerly winds return to the 
region. As a result, high temperatures are expected to be in the 
low to mid 50s through Saturday. By Sunday, rain chances increase 
as a cold front slowly pushes through the region. Up to an inch of
rain is expected with this system through Monday, with locally 
higher amounts possible.

Further into next week, the forecast becomes murky as Ensembles
remain in disagreement regarding a system slated to move across 
the Mid-South on Wednesday. Right now, the ECMWF and Canadian 
are depicting a robust trough moving over the Rockies on 
Wednesday with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s locally. As for 
the GFS, depiction of a weaker trough situated over Mexico is 
present, with areas across the Mid-South seeing dewpoint 
temperatures in the mid 40s. Regardless, a wet pattern is expected
for next week. 

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Ceilings expected to lower again overnight with VFR conditions
deteriorating down to MVFR conditions into Thursday morning. 
Improvement to VFR conditions expected by Thursday afternoon. 
Light W winds will increase to WNW winds between 7-12 kts with a 
few gusts on Thursday then becoming light by Thursday evening.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC