511 
FXUS64 KTSA 171131
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

Today will be another unseasonably warm day, despite an increase
in high cloudiness this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will
reach the lower 70s to the south of a weak surface boundary that
will be draped across the area, with 60s to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

A strong storm system will move out of the Rockies into the Plains
late tonight and Wednesday morning. Ahead of this system,
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will blossom
overnight and continue into Wednesday morning. The limiting factor
for more widespread and vigorous thunderstorm activity will be 
the meager instability in place due to this system following 
closely on the heels of the one that shunted the better moisture 
south and east Monday.

A dry line will push east across the area late Wednesday morning
and afternoon bringing an end to the precipitation, with a cold
front following Wednesday night. Temperatures will fall back
closer to normal following this frontal passage for Thursday into
the weekend.

Another storm system looks to impact the area this weekend, but
the models continue to diverge on the timing and the details. This
system will bring a chance of rain at some point over the weekend,
with no wintry weather expected in our area.

Yet another system may affect the area around Tuesday of next
week, and it again looks wet rather than white, but details on
this system are yet to be defined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

VFR elements will prevail through most of the valid period
at all sites. Chances for light rain w/MVFR vsbys will increase 
after 06z across the NE OK sites and after 08z-09z elsewhere. Cigs
are expected to remain at or just above minimum VFR. Chances for TSRA
appear too low at this time for TAF inclusion.      

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  51  66  31 /  10  80  70   0 
FSM   72  52  67  36 /  10  50  90   0 
MLC   71  53  66  33 /   0  60  50   0 
BVO   64  47  64  29 /   0  80  80   0 
FYV   68  49  64  32 /  10  60 100   0 
BYV   65  50  63  33 /   0  50 100   0 
MKO   69  52  66  32 /  10  70  70   0 
MIO   64  49  63  32 /   0  80 100   0 
F10   69  51  66  32 /  10  80  60   0 
HHW   71  54  68  36 /   0  30  60   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...23