763 
FXUS64 KLUB 151136
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
536 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Longwave troughs at both the mid and upper levels will shift 
eastward through the day allowing for southwesterly flow aloft to 
increase over the Panhandle. This in combination with a 
developing/strengthening low in the lee of the Rockies will bring 
elevated southwesterly surface winds across much of the CWA through 
early this evening. Models are generally in good synoptic agreement, 
placing the highest winds on the Caprock. GFS/MOS guidance shows 
potential winds briefly exceeding 30 mph over higher elevations in 
the northwest. Although this is possible given a series of embedded 
upper shortwaves providing at least some forcing component, 
generally overcast skies will prevent the strongest winds from 
mixing down to the surface. That said, wind gusts around 35 mph 
remain likely through the afternoon. Winds will slightly diminish 
into the evening as the aforementioned surface low departs to the 
east. However, they will remain elevated with gusts around 25 mph 
as the overall longwave pattern will be mostly unchanged. Periods 
of slightly reduced visibility associated with blowing dust during
the afternoon hours are possible. Cloud cover will keep 
temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but the 
southwesterly winds will still allow for much warmer than average 
highs near 70. Combined with RHs in the teens, a Red Flag Warning 
has been issued for much of the CWA through 9 PM CST. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Zonal flow overhead Monday will continue to promote breezy and warm 
conditions. The next upper level shortwave trough will cross the 
Four Corners region Tuesday and then to the east-northeast cross 
southern Colorado to western Kansas Tuesday night. Breezy conditions 
will persist Tuesday ahead of this upper trough, but the focus 
remains on precipitation potential with this system. Trends in the 
operation model runs have been toward a drier and breezier solution 
in the Tuesday night through Wednesday period as the low lifts 
farther to the north. Potential to tap into mid level moisture of 
Pacific origin looks limited, but there is a subset of ensemble 
members that favor a wetter solution and the NBM remains stubbornly 
bullish toward precip chances. This progressive upper pattern in 
January is typically unfavorable to precipitation chances with the 
only meaningful window being in the warm advection zone ahead of the 
system. However, significant moisture return is unlikely and the 
main lift is likely to be further north toward the central High 
Plains. Cannot completely discount at this time, but with the 
operational runs, ensemble mean, and cluster analysis favoring the 
drier solution will keep PoPs in a 20-30 percent range at this time. 
After short wave ridging aloft Thursday will then look to the next 
upper trough early next weekend. Models continue to favor a 
progressive southeasterly-moving, positively-tilted trough. 
Confidence is fairly high that this will bring us a brief shot of 
below normal temperature air for Saturday but could also bring a 
brief period of light snow Friday night to western zones. Slight 
chance mention in the NBM initialization looks okay at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Low level wind shear remains possible at KCDS and KPVW early this
morning. Winds will increase through the day at all TAF sites, 
peaking this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kts are possible for KPVW 
and KLBB, before slightly diminishing this evening. VFR conditions
will persist. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for much of the forecast area 
through 9 PM CST. Wind gusts of 35 mph are expected on the Caprock
with RHs falling to around 15 percent in the afternoon. Fuels 
remain dry across West Texas due to a lack of precipitation and 
recent high wind events with widespread forecast RFTI values of 3
and 4. King, Kent and Stonewall counties have been excluded as 
winds will be slightly lower. Although the dry fuels, low RHs and 
occasional gusty westerly winds will generally persist through the
week, fire concerns will diminish after today with cooling 
temperatures.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this 
evening for TXZ021>037-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10