215 FXUS65 KREV 120450 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 850 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023 .UPDATE... This evening's radar trends continue to show another round of light to moderately intense precipitation working east of Sacramento towards the Sierra. DOT webcams currently show snow impacts exist at pass elevations, with light rain or a rain snow mix at Lake Tahoe level (including Truckee). Based on these trends along with hi-res guidance, have extended the Winter Weather Advisory out to 2AM tonight as travel impacts are expected to continue in the mountains. -Dustin && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023/ SYNOPSIS... Snow showers continue this evening across the Sierra with additional accumulations expected along the passes. Be sure to check with CalTrans and NDOT for the latest road conditions. After a brief break in the weather on Thursday, another period of very active weather returns this weekend and into early next week. Expect additional disruptions to travel and mountain recreation through the weekend as periods of heavy snow return to the Sierra. SHORT TERM... TONIGHT: (Fast Moving Storm) * A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 10pm this evening across portions of the Sierra from Alpine County northward into the Tahoe Basin and far NE California. Additional snowfall accumulations of 1-3" will be possible for the Tahoe Basin through this evening with up to 6" along the crest. Most impacts will remain above 6500' as snow levels rise this evening. Snowfall rates up to 1.0"/hr will be possible through about 7pm before rates begin to taper off tonight. Be sure to check with Caltrans and NDOT for the latest road conditions, chain controls, and closures. THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING: (Brief Break between Storms) * Most lingering snow showers will dissipate by early Thursday morning across the Sierra with a weak shortwave ridge building into the area behind the current system. This will provide a welcomed pause in the action before another train of storms pushes through this weekend and into early next week. Breezy south winds will prevail down in the valleys on Thursday but strong winds will still persist across the Sierra ridgetops with peak gusts of 50-70 mph possible. * Try to take advantage of any breaks between storms to clear drains and gutters of debris and snow, keep stocked up with supplies and food for your homes and vehicles, and follow guidance from local emergency management. Fuentes LONG TERM...(Friday and beyond)... This weekend will be an active one throughout the region as a series of storms lines up to impact the Sierra and western Nevada. Starting things off for us on Friday, a relatively weak wave will move in bringing light snow to the Sierra and rain/snow showers to the valleys. Warm air advection and southerly winds will keep snow levels 5500-6000 feet. Snow totals for the Sierra will be higher west of the crest, and on the eastern side we will see generally 1- 2". Valleys will see light rain to rain/snow mix with totals in the 0.01-0.1' range. Wind gusts along the ridges will be up to 85 mph, with much lighter gusts to 20 mph in the western Nevada valleys. This is just an appetizer to the larger storms that will follow. For Saturday, a deeper and more potent trough will move onshore along the Pacific coast, and bring along another round of atmospheric moisture and gusty winds. The low pressure associated with this weekend-long (and then some) event will continue to stream rounds of precipitation across the area. Impacts will begin early Saturday along the crest and move eastward through the day in to the valleys. Snow will be the primary precipitation type, with more heavy, wet accumulations. Snowfall will be nearly continuous for the Sierra, while occasional breaks in precipitation will appear in the valleys. Snow amounts for the Sierra will vary, with the Tahoe Basin seeing a possible 8-12" through Saturday night. But wait... there's more. Recall the above nod to the storms lasting all weekend and we could easily see an additional foot in and around Tahoe. As for the rest of the Sierra, we will again be measuring these totals in feet. Glancing down into western Nevada, this series of waves has good potential for spillover, so we could see an inch or two on the valley floors upwards of 4" for foothill areas through the weekend. The potential for more accumulation exists Monday into Tuesday. This parent low pressure circulation looks to take it's time working inland, so we have a Winter Storm Watch from late Friday into Tuesday afternoon. In fact, we hang onto the possibility of snow in our forecast through midweek. There is a hint of a dry period coming next weekend, but various model guidance leaves a bit of uncertainty for the longer range outlook. HRICH AVIATION... Valley rain and mountain snow showers associated with a weak winter storm will persist through tonight. Expect intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions, breezy ridge winds, and LLWS of 35kts (just for KTRK/KTVL), through around 10Z tonight. An additional 1-3" of snow could fall at KTRK/KTVL, with just a trace at KMMH/KRNO/KCXP/KMEV through tonight. Winds will be light, generally out of the south today through tomorrow. There will be a brief pause in the active weather tomorrow before the next system moves in on Friday morning. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM PST Thursday NVZ002. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Tuesday afternoon NVZ002. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM PST Thursday CAZ071. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Tuesday afternoon CAZ071. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM PST Thursday CAZ072. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Tuesday afternoon CAZ072. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Tuesday afternoon CAZ073. && $$