350 FXUS62 KILM 060814 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 314 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings seasonable weather through Sunday. A weak front an upper level disturbance may bring some light rain Sunday night. The early part of next week will be seasonable and generally rain-free. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cooler air arrives today behind a dry, reinforcing cold front. Light SW winds this morning will become westerly and NW this afternoon as high pressure builds over the southeastern US. Highs still a touch above normal this afternoon; in the lower 60s along the coast and upper 50s inland. Cool tonight with lows dropping to near freezing with locally colder readings due to the radiational cooling potential. High level clouds may increase toward sunrise due to a weak shortwave over southern VA and northern NC. For now, the forecast remains on the upper end of guidance as these shortwaves are typically under-respected in dry regimes. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Seasonable weather Saturday with high pressure bringing a very light gradient and mid level westerly flow keeping most of the column very dry. Clouds increase on Sunday in a weak warm advection regime, the resulting isentropic upglide moistening the trop through a deep layer. As this process should take all day we likely stay rain-free. Tough call as to whether or not it rains Sunday night as the mid level height falls impinge from the west and a front stalls near the coast. There is increasing model agreement that a surging warm tongue offshore shifts the ascent over the ocean where most of the rains should develop. With moderate dynamics passing overhead will still carry low to mid chance-range POPs over land, highest east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Just as with the short term the long term will start off with seasonable temperatures and no rain as another surface high builds in and a low amplitude ridge builds locally ahead of the shortwave diving south down the upper MS River. This upper feature passes to our south with little to no surface reflection locally but it will serve to push frontal boundary well offshore. This does not allow low level flow to veer and advect moisture into the area. It's passage should not yield meaningful rain chances (the latest GFS is much stronger and has considerable QPF locally, but this is a relatively new idea and so was not factored in overnight). High pressure builds behind this system for the end of the period keeping the forecast dry and seasonable. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR. light southwest winds become westerly overnight and NW this today. Extended Outlook...There is a low chance for MVFR conditions Sunday night into Monday morning as low pressure develops offshore and races out to sea. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Cold air advection may lead to some breezy conditions this morning with winds 15 knots and gusts to 20-25 knots at times. Quiet marine conditions will prevail this afternoon. Offshore winds will keep winds light and seas around 2-4 feet. Saturday through Tuesday... Pretty minimal conditions to start the period with weak high pressure progressing east, its center remaining just to our north. Warm front may lift just inland Sunday night turning winds more southerly and increasing speed by a category and add some gustiness. Seas increase but remain sub- advisory both in response to the added wind speed but also a light SE swell. This boundary is pushed back out to see by the next upper level disturbance moving through on Monday. Tuesday brings light and variable winds as weak high builds behind the Monday trough. Forecast confidence is low however as some guidance is quicker and stronger with the next system implying a strengthening low could affect the waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM