570 FXUS63 KDLH 031834 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1234 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 The forecast focus will be on a winter storm that will affect the Northland today into Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday morning. After this storm departs, the rest of the period lacks any significant storms. A challenging forecast continues this morning with snowfall amounts increasing over portions of the area with this mornings update. Early morning water vapor imagery shows the upper low over the southern Nebraska and northern Kansas border and a surface low was just downstream. A slower onset to the precipitation and later exit is expected and that has been the trend over the past few model runs. Strong forcing will develop from south to north today as the upper low moves to the Iowa/Minnesota border by 00Z Wednesday. Forecast soundings show quite a bit of dry air aloft present initially with high pressure over northern parts of the region. Some of this initial lift will go to saturating the airmass. However increasing isentropic lift and some lower to mid level FGEN will move into the Northland this afternoon and continue tonight. Plenty of moisture will be available with PWAT values of 0.5-0.6 inches, which is above the 90th percentile. Snowfall rates are expected to ramp up this afternoon, especially after 20Z per the HREF which shows hourly rates of 0.75-1" developing over southern portions of the Northland and lifting north into far northern Wisconsin toward the Twin Ports after 22Z. We did increase snowfall amounts with this forecast package and will have to monitor trends through the day for further adjustments. Through late Wednesday afternoon, we have fairly widespread snowfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches from Southern Cass County through the Brainerd Lakes, Twin Ports, and into northwest Wisconsin. Lake and terrain enhancement will lead to higher totals, around a foot, from central Bayfield County into the higher terrain of the Bayfield Peninsula. For those reasons, we did issue a Winter Storm Warning for both Bayfield and Ashland Counties. As mentioned, the storm will be slower to depart and snow will linger into Wednesday afternoon and possibly to Thursday morning with additional light accumulations possible. There will also be a chance for a wintry mix including freezing rain, mainly over portions of northwest Wisconsin and we have some ice accumulations to two tenths of an inch over southern Price County. Please monitor our forecasts, statements, and social media through this storm as changes to the forecast are still possible. Some lower probability outcomes include more lake/terrain enhancement along the South Shore and into the Twin Ports than currently forecast leading to higher snowfall totals there. One last this on this storm is that there will be some blowing snow that develops, especially near Lake Superior tonight into Wednesday as northeast wind ramp up. A period of drier weather is expected after this storm departs on Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 A winter storm will impact the KHYR, KDLH and KBRD terminals with snow and IFR/LIFR conditions this afternoon and evening, and continuing through Wednesday. KHIB will remain on the northern fringe of the band of snow, however, IFR conditions in stratus and fog will persist for the 18Z TAF cycle. KINL will remain north of the snow impacts from the winter storm, however, IFR stratus and fog will also continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 Northeast winds will ramp up today and especially late tonight into Wednesday due to an area of low pressure moving through the region. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots by late afternoon with gusts to 30 knots then increase to 20 to 30 knots with gusts of 35 to 40 knots by Wednesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all areas starting later this morning. We issued a Gale Warning for portions of the area from Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. There are some indications the gales may last into Wednesday evening and the Gale Warning may need to be extended. Snow will develop later today and continue into Wednesday night. Low visibility will occur at times, especially late this afternoon into tonight. A quieter period of wind an weather will develop after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 28 24 27 16 / 80 90 70 40 INL 20 11 21 0 / 0 0 10 0 BRD 26 23 28 14 / 90 100 90 30 HYR 31 29 33 22 / 100 100 80 50 ASX 32 29 32 24 / 90 100 80 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for WIZ006>008. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for WIZ009. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ033-034- 036-037. Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ038. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-143>148- 150. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-143>148- 150. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...PA MARINE...Melde