817 FXUS63 KDLH 020517 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Forecast highlights feature another round of fog potential tonight into Monday morning, with a bit more clarity on the Winter Storm for Monday night through Tuesday night. With expansive low level saturation across the region, another night with areas of fog is expected across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. However, low level lift will be less for tonight into Monday morning. This will limit the overall freezing drizzle threat as compared to Sunday morning. Looking ahead to the Monday night through Tuesday night Winter Storm for the region, the message remains generally unchanged. The track does appear to be settling in per the GEFS and EC ensembles, with the 12Z deterministic GFS remaining on the northern fringe of solutions. Thus, the greatest impacts appear to be focusing in on northwest Wisconsin and into the I-35 corridor to the south of the Twin Ports. Also, given a track that is a bit more southerly, the freezing rain potential is somewhat decreased with a lesser warm layer aloft. Still, the Price, southern Iron, and southeast Sawyer county areas remain the most favored for freezing rain impacts with around a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation still forecast. Regarding snow, the axis of the heaviest snow in association with strongly coupled syntopic and mesoscale frontogenetic forcing is from the Hinckley and Grantsburg areas, northeast through the Hayward and the Bayfield Peninsula, and into Iron and northern Price counties. Within this zone, 6 to 10 inches of snow are forecast. Given the banded nature of the event, there will be a sharp cutoff to snow totals outside of the banding. Furthermore, subtle shifts in the forecast heavy snow axis are to be expected over the next 12-24 hours. One area that will need to be watched will be the higher elevations of the Bayfield Peninsula with onshore northeast flow. While the lake and air temperature differential is not tremendous, the duration of the onshore flow could support higher accumulations. Will maintain the Winter Storm Watch for now given the banded nature of the event, its dependence on track changes, and a slightly later onset. That said, if the 12Z global ensemble track holds, the Brainerd through Duluth areas would experience the lower edge of then envelope of snowfall and would be north of the heaviest axis of snow. Thus, the Watch for Brainerd to Duluth would likely be replaced by a Winter Weather Advisory or simply no headlines at all. Elsewhere from Pine County into northwest Wisconsin, if the current track holds, an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning would be likely. Headline changes are to be expected in the next 12 hours. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Satellite this evening shows widespread stratus engulfing the Upper Midwest. Station observations have the ceilings heights mostly on the low end of IFR and near LIFR. At the surface there are also reports of some fog development as well as some freezing drizzle. At this time we don't anticipate significant accumulation but some slick surfaces can be expected. These conditions will persist through the night with some improvement expected tomorrow afternoon. However, cloud cover and ceilings are expected to continue through the end of the forecast period but may raise to MVFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Outer Apostle Islands until 6pm CST this evening for west-southwest wind gusts to 25 kts. Elsewhere, west-southwest winds at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon will become west to northwest at 5 to 10 kts tonight across the western Lake Superior nearshore waters. A strong low pressure system will impact the region Monday night through Wednesday. Northeast winds will strengthen with gusts of 20-30kts Tuesday through Wednesday with hazardous conditions for small craft. Gale Force gusts are possible for the Outer Apostle Islands. The greatest wave heights of 6 to 10 feet are forecast for the Outer Apostle Islands through Saxon Harbor. Freezing spray is also possible for these zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 14 25 17 26 / 20 10 10 80 INL 8 22 6 22 / 10 0 10 0 BRD 11 24 15 25 / 20 10 30 70 HYR 15 29 21 31 / 20 20 50 100 ASX 17 30 20 31 / 20 10 20 100 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for WIZ001>004-006>009. MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for MNZ034>038. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PA AVIATION...Melde/Britt MARINE...PA