110 FXUS64 KBRO 020450 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1050 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Breezy and warm for the rest of the day with highs reaching the lower 80s. Winds have gusted to around 30 mph in the RGV and will stay elevated through the afternoon hours. Tonight, fog will not be likely due to moderate southerly winds. However, mostly cloudy skies are forecast for tonight which will keep Deep South Texas warm with lows in the mid 60s. Tomorrow, as the mid-level low begins to dig its way east into northern Texas, winds become breezy again. Southerly gusts could reach up to 35 mph at times. A Special Weather Statement may be needed for winds but right now, Wind Advisory criteria won't be met. High temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow with most of Deep South Texas reaching the upper 80s. The next cold front moves through the CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds begin to shift northwesterly in the northern Ranchlands by 7 AM Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Light winds ahead of an approaching front and relative humidity values near 100 percent will lead to foggy conditions on Tuesday morning. Then a low pressure system heading into the Upper Mississippi River Valley will drag a weak cold front through Deep South Texas on Tuesday, ushering in some drier, slightly cooler air to the region. However, highs should still reach the lower to mid 80s across most of the area by the afternoon. This frontal passage will be generally rain-free as there will be limited atmospheric moisture available ahead of the front. Overnight lows will be about 10 degrees cooler on Tuesday night as compared to Monday night, with lows in the 50s across the region. While drier air will continue to filter in on Wednesday, dew points may be high enough still and winds light enough on Wednesday morning for fog to develop for a few hours. As the base of the upper level trough rounds the Southern Plains on Wednesday, we'll get a reinforcing shot of northerly winds with more weak cold and dry air advection. Even so, temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. This reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air will help to keep fog formation out of the picture and lows generally in the 50s for the next couple of mornings. Mid level ridging will build overhead in the latter part of the week and into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will slide to the east and set up an onshore flow by Thursday. South-southeasterly winds will strengthen this weekend as another shortwave trough spawns a lee cyclone in the Central Plains and strengthens the local pressure gradient. With the onshore flow, temperatures will increase into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MVFR ceilings/visibilities will prevail through Monday morning. Periods of IFR will be possible at each TAF site overnight tonight, but best probabilities of IFR will occur at BRO and HRL. Southerly winds will increase through the morning, becoming very gusty by mid-morning. Gusts between 30-35 knots will be frequent through Monday afternoon, particularly at BRO and HRL, with frequent gusts up to 30 knots occurring at MFE. Guidance indicates VFR conditions briefly occurring sometime early-mid afternoon before MVFR ceilings return late afternoon or early Monday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Tonight through Monday Night: Most of the sea fog has dissipated this afternoon with breezy southerly winds on the Laguna Madre and light winds over the offshore waters. Winds and seas begin to increase tomorrow morning ahead of the next cold front coming in Tuesday morning. Therefore, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the near/offshore waters beginning early Monday morning and ending by Monday night. The SCA may need to be extended depending on how the winds behave tomorrow. Models have been having a tough time initializing wind speed especially over the offshore waters this afternoon. Tuesday through Saturday: Seas will be elevated on Tuesday and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed in the morning. Marine fog will also be possible over the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters heading into Tuesday morning. Then a weak cold front will move through Tuesday afternoon, but winds will likely stay below 20 knots. The drier air will help to inhibit marine fog for the next couple of days. Seas will gradually lower, with moderate winds and seas expected Wednesday through Friday. A low pressure system forming over the Central Plains will increase south-southeasterly winds heading into the weekend, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 68 85 67 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 83 68 84 66 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 83 67 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 85 66 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 67 75 65 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 67 77 65 / 0 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Monday for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Soria LONG TERM....69-Farris AVIATION...67-Mejia