144 FXUS64 KFWD 310849 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 249 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022/ /Overnight through New Year's Day/ An upper trough is departing the region this evening and will take the mid and upper cloud cover with it as it pulls off to the northeast. Until then, light surface winds and a fairly significant moisture gradient will linger across the region. This has led to some patchy fog in our far eastern counties and this will likely linger into the morning hours before boundary layer winds begin to increase. The trough will be replaced by modest westerly flow aloft later today. At the surface, low level winds will become more southerly and will increase in response to lowering pressure in the Plains. Southwest winds above the surface will increase to 35-40 kt this afternoon and allow temperatures to climb in to the mid 70s across our southwestern counties. It'll be a dry but warm New Year's Eve night with temperatures in the mid/upper 60s to ring in the midnight hour. They'll only fall into the mid 50s by Sunday morning. Persistent southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching storm system will lead to a very warm New Year's Day. High temperatures will climb into the lower 80s across our southwest and into the upper 70s along the I-35 corridor. The record high for DFW is 83 degrees which should be safe, but it should be a top 5 warmest New Year's Day on record. The record at Waco is 86, but we'll likely be in the top 5 warmest there too. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Night Onward/ Summary: Warm and breezy weather can be expected on New Year's Day. Showers and storms are expected on Monday associated with an upper level low pressure system and a cold front. Some severe weather will be possible along and east of I-35. Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the rest of next week. Discussion: An upper level low will cross the Four Corners Sunday night before emerging in the Central and Southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, a 1000mb (MSLP) lee-Rockies surface low will accompany the upper level system, and should be located over eastern Colorado by daybreak Monday. A Pacific front will extend southward from the surface low through West-Central Texas. Warm and moist air advection will keep temperatures on the warm side for early January, with Monday morning lows ranging from the upper 50s in the northwest to the mid 60s across the south. A moist and unstable airmass will develop across the region as the upper low and surface frontal system approach from the west. Scattered showers and a few elevated storms may be ongoing in the morning, but more widespread convection will develop by afternoon as a lead shortwave lifts northeast through the Big Country. Storms will likely develop along or just ahead of the surface front, which still looks to be located near or perhaps slightly east of the Interstate 35 corridor around the time of convective initiation. Bulk shear values around 50kt, in combination with MUCape values of 1500+ j/kg, would support supercellular storm mode in the early stages, making storms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds. SRH values in the lowest levels also appear pretty robust, or sufficient to support the development of a few tornadoes. The shear vector being nearly parallel with the front may allow for rapid storm mergers and the transition to a linear system as convection progresses east across the eastern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds would be the primary storm threat at that stage, but a tornado concern may also still exist with any embedded supercells or qlcs spin-ups. With all that said, we are still a few days out, and a slight shift either west or east in the frontal position as storms develop could make a big difference on where the best severe potential would exist, so be sure to check back for updates this weekend. Storms will exit to our east late in the evening, leaving dry and cooler air in place across the region Monday night. Temperatures will still be above normal, however, until a secondary front ushers in an even cooler airmass Tuesday night into Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will be the result for the second half of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022/ /6Z TAFs/ An upper trough will continue to pull away from the region this morning and should take the thicker mid and upper cloud cover with it. Until then, light winds will prevail early this morning, but southerly flow will increase to 15 kt by mid morning and continue through the remainder of the period. IFR vis in areas of fog will prevail this morning mainly east of the D10 airspace. This should not impact the major airports. VFR will prevail this afternoon and tonight. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 55 76 63 74 / 0 0 0 10 70 Waco 75 54 76 65 77 / 0 0 0 10 50 Paris 66 53 72 61 70 / 0 0 0 20 90 Denton 71 53 75 62 72 / 0 0 0 10 70 McKinney 69 53 73 62 72 / 0 0 0 10 70 Dallas 71 56 75 64 73 / 0 0 0 10 70 Terrell 70 55 73 64 74 / 0 0 0 10 80 Corsicana 72 56 76 65 76 / 0 0 0 10 80 Temple 76 54 76 65 77 / 0 0 0 10 30 Mineral Wells 73 51 79 61 72 / 0 0 0 10 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$