364 FXUS62 KFFC 301749 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1249 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 410 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 A weak wedge has build into the NE corner of the CWA this morning. An easterly surge of clouds and low level moisture is noted in the IR imagery and in the dewpoints. The atmos will continue to moisten today with PWATs increasing from near one half of an inch to near an inch and a half. At 500mb, several pieces of shortwave energy will move NE in the flow ahead of a longwave trough tonight and Saturday. Each of these waves will help produce some light precip ahead of the main trough and cold front that will approach from the west. The cold front looks to move through during the day Saturday. Not much instability noted until during the day on Saturday. However, marginally steep lapse rates and good upper divergence is noted Friday night. Will keep the mention of thunder in for Friday night, but do think the best chances will be during the day Saturday, mainly along and south of Interstate 20 as the shear also increases. QPF amounts generally are under an inch, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially within the thunderstorms. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 The long term forecast picks up on Saturday night and into Sunday morning, where an exiting trough in the upper levels is finally pushed out of the area taking with it any lingering precipitation. What's left in place will be unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of the CWA. This is a departure of roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average. This trend will continue as high pressure off the coast feeds warm moist air up from the gulf. So while the spring temperatures will be a welcome change from the cold end to December, it will set the stage for a few days of of potentially heavy rain beginning Monday night and Tuesday morning. An upper level cut off low will push a deep trough through the SE on Tuesday of next week. With plenty of moisture available across the southeast, instability will be in no short supply. Thunderstorms will be likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong with possibly an isolated severe. But the confidence on severe weather at this time is low, as slight changes in the timing of the front will likely change the amount of instability there will be to work with. Confidence is growing that this front and the moisture available will likely lead to a heavy rain event. Guidance has been trending toward 3-5 inches of rain possible across portions of N. Georgia from Tuesday and into Thursday, with higher amounts possible across the higher elevations of the NE Georgia mountains. Given these rain totals the threat for flooding will likely become a growing concern as the week unfolds. There is still some differences in the models; how these differences are resolved over the next few days will likely lead to small changes in the forecast. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 MVFR level clouds remain across portions of north Georgia, including the ATL metro area, due to the influence of the wedge. Some IFR level clouds furthermore persist around AHN, although gradual improvement to low VFR is anticipated by 20-21Z this afternoon. Widespread rain will move into the area overnight and linger into the daytime on Saturday. A PROB30 for TSRA has been introduced for 17-21Z at ATL on Saturday, as well. Ceilings are expected to lower overnight, down to MVFR by 03Z and IFR by 06-07Z. LIFR ceilings will moreover be possible after 12Z on Saturday. Winds will be primarily E to SE at 5-10 kts. //ATL Confidence...Avi Update... Medium confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 51 64 47 66 / 80 90 10 0 Atlanta 54 66 48 66 / 80 90 10 0 Blairsville 48 60 42 63 / 80 80 10 0 Cartersville 53 65 46 66 / 80 90 10 0 Columbus 57 70 50 70 / 90 70 10 0 Gainesville 50 61 46 65 / 80 90 10 0 Macon 57 71 51 72 / 50 60 10 0 Rome 54 66 46 67 / 80 90 10 0 Peachtree City 54 68 47 68 / 80 80 10 0 Vidalia 57 72 56 73 / 40 70 20 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...King