890 FXUS64 KBRO 301625 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1025 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 A weak cold front will be pushing through the region early this morning. Even then, temperatures will still remain above normal for late December with upper 70s to lower 80s today and Saturday with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s tonight. Light and variable winds tonight coupled with a clear sky means fog will once again be possible across much of the region. An H5 shortwave trudging overhead this morning is the reason why a cold front clears the area today. However, the lack of significant moisture means rain chances are virtually non-existent. Zonal H5 flow develops in the wake of the shortwave and allows for a quiet, but warmer than normal, end to 2022. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 For those ringing in the new year outside, expect a warm, at least for Dec 31st, and humid NYE with fog developing late. The next 500mb system swings from the Pacific coast Sunday to the Plains into Monday afternoon, with low pressure then deepening across the Plains into mid week, strengthening the pressure gradient and increasing southeasterly and southerly winds late Sunday through Monday along the lower Texas coast. The next front arrives early Tuesday, with a chance of showers or thunderstorms along the coast and offshore, followed by a second front Wednesday. Above normal temperatures continue into 2023, with near record to potentially record breaking heat expected Monday afternoon. Model guidance has trended warmer, with NBM90 even going low 90s for most of the CWA. Have mixed in the NBM90 solution with the previous package high and warmer NBM to bring 89s and 90s to most inland locations, bumping BRO up into the upper 80s, banking on S to SSW flow late morning into early afternoon and maybe some compressional heating ahead of the front driving the heat spike. The front early Tuesday knocks highs down a handful of degrees, into the mid to upper 70s, with the front on Wednesday dragging highs down another handful of degrees towards normal, in the low 70s. By late week, onshore and southerly flow returns to likely lead another above normal weekend for the new year. Fog may develop late NYE across most of Deep South Texas and continue across bay or nearshore coastal waters into Sunday, Sunday night, and maybe into Monday. Model guidance keeps SSTs cool, potentially due to continued upwelling with elevated and persistent southeasterly winds into early next week. Astronomical tides increase once again into early next week, and tidal runup may need to be monitored Monday into Thursday near high tide cycles. Drier air is expected with both frontal passages Tuesday and Wednesday, although 20 foot wind speeds may fall shy of any fire weather concerns at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 A few mid level clouds in the area, but all TAF sites are currently checking in with VFR conditions. Light northwest winds will stick around through tonight and Saturday morning while a mid-level short wave trough crosses Texas to the north of the CWA. No aviation issues until after midnight tonight. There was brief locally dense fog this morning near the coast. The more aggressive NAM guidance suggests another, more impactful round of IFR low clouds and fog late tonight into Saturday morning. Will include mention in the upcoming TAFs. Given the primarily marine basis for the fog, expect KBRO to see the worst conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 79 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 56 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 81 53 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 58 69 63 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 56 73 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....65-Soria AVIATION...54-BHM