079 FXUS61 KRNK 301525 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1025 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area this morning will begin to lose its grip over the area later in the day as moisture increases from the south. Rain is likely Saturday as a cold front crosses the area. The system exits the region Sunday, followed by a return to warm temperatures and dry weather. A frontal system with more rain reaches our region late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EST Friday... ...Warm and mostly sunny for most with clouds moving in later... Moisture is slowly increasing from the southwest this morning, with stratus over the Boone, Jefferson, Wilkesboro, and Sparta areas. Cirrus was also nearing from the west, and expect clouds to continue to encroach slowly and lower by tonight. That said most of today should be sunny becoming partly cloudy for most, with temperatures warming into the 50s and lower 60s. As of 210 AM EST Friday... Dry and mild today. Increasing clouds tonight with rain arriving to close out the year. High pressure will gradually lose its grip over the Mid Atlantic region today as it heads farther east and off the coast. A front over the nation's mid-section will also be moving closer with it's primary influence not expected until Saturday. In between the departing high and approaching front, southerly wind flow will bring increasing moisture with clouds overspreading the region later today, thickening tonight with the development of rain to close out the last day of the year. Expectation is for clouds to move north from the Carolinas today with potential for light rain or drizzle along the southern Blue Ridge tonight...rain amounts through daybreak Saturday less than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures today will be unseasonably mild with highs in the 50s/60s. Lows tonight should remain well above freezing due to cloud cover trapping remnants of the daytime heating...minimums in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EST Friday... Showers expected Saturday into Saturday night with mild temperatures continuing... A cold front is expected to approach the area Saturday then cross the region Saturday night. We are still forecasting showers to develop in advance of this front across the region on Saturday. However, the forecast amount of precipitation has decreased. While we will have strong south to southwest flow into the region advecting moisture into the area, guidance is offering a convective potential south of the area. This potential, if realized, could help to reduce the strength of showers across our region thanks to subsidence on the poleward side of the activity. So, while we will continue with a high probability of showers for Saturday, the amount of expected precipitation has been cut in about half as compared to twenty- four hours ago. After the front moves through Saturday night, increasing northwest flow will help maintain isolated to scattered coverage of upslope showers across parts of Southeast West Virginia, south into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. This coverage is expected to gradually decrease as the night progresses. For Sunday into Monday, we are expecting no significant cool down as the air behind the cold front is Pacific based. Zonal flow sets up over our region with a ridge axis across the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley basins. By Monday night, the axis of this ridge shift east, crossing our area, and allowing winds to increase from the south, off the central Gulf of Mexico. Cloud cover will be on the increase Monday night with isolated to scattered showers possible across Southeast West Virginia and neighboring counties of Southwest Virginia. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average twenty degrees above normal. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 AM EST Friday... Mild and wet Tuesday and Wednesday then drier and cooler Thursday... While there has been some change in guidance over the past twenty-four hours, particularly in timing, a wet forecast is still on track for Tuesday into Wednesday. We will be watching the approach of a cold front on Tuesday with showers expected in advance of it, especially over western and central sections. The front is expected to arrive Tuesday evening, but the approach of a shortwave trough from the Deep South is expected to stall the front over eastern sections of the area. This same shortwave trough is then progged to cross eastern sections of the region during the day Wednesday. With a double-shot of bursts of locally heavy rain across mainly central and eastern parts of the region Tuesday evening and during the day Wednesday, the potential continues for isolated flooding being a concern during this time period. The latest NAEFS also continue to offer PW values in the neighborhood of 1.00 to 1.25 inches, +2 to +3 sigma, over this same region for a lengthy period of time. Soil moisture from where and how much precipitation falls on Saturday, will also play a factor into any flooding potential mid- week. With the departure of the Wednesday shortwave trough, and the approach a closed upper low across the western Great Lakes region, our flow regime will shift northwest and cooler air will start entering the region. Lingering low level moisture, northwest flow, and the approach of the 850mb front will set the stage for lingering isolated to scattered showers across mainly western sections of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. A few snowflakes may mix with the rain at the highest elevations Thursday morning. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to average about twenty to twenty-five degrees above normal with Thursday cooler, but still above normal for this time of year. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1000 AM EST Friday... Confidence is high for VFR conditions through the day. Increasing moisture from the south will introduce a low cloud layer by this evening...cloud base between 3-6kft. This cloud layer will lower overnight with rain and/or drizzle developing toward daybreak Saturday. Expect widespread MVFR cigs/vsbys by midnight, and IFR by daybreak Saturday. OUTLOOK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... Poor flight conditions expected Saturday as rain arrives Saturday morning...cigs/vsbys IFR. The rain and low clouds will persist through the day Saturday as a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic. Upslope rain showers may last through Saturday night for the mountains near BLF and LWB, but conditions should return to VFR elsewhere. Breezy winds could follow for Sunday, but good flying weather will continue through Monday. Another cold front could approach on Tuesday to bring more rain and low ceilings. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM/SH SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...PM