563 FXUS63 KGLD 301020 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 320 AM MST Fri Dec 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 110 PM MST Thu Dec 29 2022 Tonight...the storm system that brought accumulating snow and much needed moisture to much of the Tri-State area over the past 18 hours or so will be moving out of the area early this evening with scattered high clouds at times overnight. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 12F to 20F range with a west to southwest wind of 5 to 15 mph. Friday-Friday night...an upper level trough axis extends from the northern plains south through the Tri-State area into south Texas during the day, moving east during the night as some ridging tries to build in from the southwest. Scattered to broken high clouds will move through from time to time with no precipitation expected. High temperatures will range from the middle 30s to lower 40s in snow covered areas to around 50 outside of the snow pack. Low temperatures fall into the upper teens to lower 20s. Saturday-Saturday night...the flow aloft becomes zonal ahead of a developing upper level trough which moves ashore across the west coast of the country during the day. During the night, the flow aloft backs to the southwest as the upper trough moves closer but still west of the Continental Divide. High temperatures look to range from the middle 40s to around 50 in snow covered areas with lower 50s to around 60 away from the snow pack. Low temperatures should be similar to Friday night in the upper teens to lower 20s. Sunday...the upper trough continues to slowly move east, remaining well west of the area. High temperatures dont look quite as warm as Friday with readings in the lower 40s to around 50. There will be a considerable amount of high clouds over the area ahead of the upper low. The NAM model is quite a bit colder with high temperatures, likely in part due to the high amount of boundary layer moisture (stratus clouds). The GFS is showing much less moisture in the this layer. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 318 AM MST Fri Dec 30 2022 Early next week, a low pressure system arrives over the Tri-State area bringing the next round of wintry precipitation. The GFS and ECMWF continue to differ with the position of the closed low over the High Plains. The GFS has the low tracking northeast mainly north of I-70, limiting the area to receive snow over the NW half of the CWA. The ECMWF could put us in a more favorable position for more widespread snowfall as the low tracks northeast across SW Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. For now, forecast is favoring more towards the ECMWF with light snow accumulations across majority of the area through the overnight hours Monday. This event could include not only light snow, but also freezing rain ahead of the snow transition as temperatures begin to cool. This could create holiday travel concerns across the area with the potential for ice accumulations to be covered by snow on roadways and other surfaces. The track of the low will need to remain closely monitored over the next several days as it will help determine if/how much winter weather the Tri-State area receives, especially any ice potential. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s for highs Monday with overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s. By Tuesday morning guidance continues to favor the surface low moving northeast towards the Great Lakes Region/Upper Midwest, bringing an end to the precipitation chances. Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side Tuesday with highs in the 30s. Depending on how much snow the area receives, these temperatures could be a few degrees too warm. Overnight lows could be in the single digits to teens. Wind chills could fall as low as the single digits below zero Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks to be dry with little change in temperatures due to the expected lingering cold air mass and snow on the ground. Highs are expected to be in the 30s across the Tri-State area with overnight lows in the single digits to mid teens. Wind chills Wednesday night into Thursday morning look to fall once again into the single digits above and below zero across the area. As we move towards the end of the week, the trough is expected to shift east as an area of high pressure moves over the Southwest/Four Corners Thursday. Temperatures look to slowly improve with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows are currently forecast to be in the teens to lower 20s Thursday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1031 PM MST Thu Dec 29 2022 VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will rule through the TAF period. Light (5-10 knot) WSW winds will prevail through sunrise. Winds will back to the SSW and increase to 12-17 knots late Friday morning (17-18Z).. persisting through mid afternoon. Winds will back to the S and decrease to 5-10 knots around or shortly before sunset Friday evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...Vincent