949 FXUS62 KKEY 300953 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 453 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 453 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 CIMSS MIMIC TPW places the Florida Keys in a swath of above normal moisture, but there has been little in the way of shower activity north of the Florida Straits. The 00z sounding highlighted the moisture, as well as multiple inversions that have likely kept the activity to a minimum. CMAN Buoys north of Long Key (LONF1) and at Sombrero Key Light (SMKF1) highlight the ever persistent northeast flow due to the colder water temperatures in the Florida Bay causing backed winds. Similar to last night, the Middle and western Upper Keys are experiencing temperatures that are a few degrees below the rest of the island chain because of the cooler air being advected in off the cooler waters by the northeasterly flow. Expansive high pressure in the Western Atlantic will dominate the region through the weekend, and will move to the east. As water temperatures in the Florida Bay continue to rise a few degrees each day, the cold air dome that has persisted over that area and kept winds backed will deteriorate. Winds will gradually veer to the east to southeast over the next 24 hours. The east to southeast flow will pump in moist maritime air, raising temperatures and dewpoints to well above normal for this time of year. New Year's Eve is shaping up very nicely, and anyone who is out and about in the Florida Keys can expect low temperatures in the lower 70s and rain-free conditions. The surface ridge axis will settle across South Florida over the weekend, which will cause a decrease in winds for the holiday weekend. By Sunday night, the gradient across the forecast area will begin to tighten as an upper-level trough moves across the central United States. The associated cold front will stall across central Florida as a mid-level high pressure cell centered over central Cuba keeps the front front driving any farther south. Have maintained slight rain chances (10%) beginning on Sunday night due to the enhanced flow, which is roughly in line to somewhat above MOS guidance. Above normal temperatures and low rain chances will continue through next week. Looking well into the extended forecast (Friday-Saturday timeframe), global models suggest that a weak cold front could move through the area, however, there are major variations in timing with this scenario. We will continue to keep an eye on this, but it does not look to be much of a cool down if it does make it to the Florida Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 453 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, expansive high pressure centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes through this afternoon, shifting to east to southeast overnight. The ridge axis will settle southward towards South Florida this weekend, resulting in slackening east to southeast breezes tonight through Sunday. As an upper-level trough slides into the Midwest, east to southeast breezes will slowly freshen once again for early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. With that said, a few showers will be possible and may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. Occasional patches of stratocumulus usually based near 3000 ft will be possible, along with swaths of cirrus. Winds will remain out of the northeast to east at 10 knots or less. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1894, the daily record low temperature of 47F was recorded in Key West. Temperatures records in December date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 74 81 73 / 10 10 0 10 Marathon 79 72 80 72 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest