351 FXUS65 KABQ 241103 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 403 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Temperatures will be on the rebound across the east today while dry and mostly sunny conditions are seen areawide. The warming trend will continue each day through midweek before the next bout of unsettled weather targets northern and central New Mexico. Valley rain and mountain snow will start Tuesday night across northwestern New Mexico before spreading south and east Wednesday. Recurring disturbances will keep precipitation in the forecast through late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Dry and warmer. What appears to be a weak disturbance is depicted in the models to pass over the state today with a few clouds. Another batch of thicker high clouds forecast to migrate over the region Christmas Day. Afternoon northwest breezes today and Christmas Day expected along the Central Highlands where gusts to around 35 mph are possible. Highs in the east today will be around 20 to nearly 35 degrees warmer compared to Friday's highs. Lows tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer over the east and generally near to above normal across northern and central NM. Highs Christmas Day will be warmer again across the CWA and finally near to above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Upper level high pressure in the Pacific begins to elongate on Monday, forcing rising pressure heights to continue their migration eastward across the Desert Southwest. This will allow the warming trend to continue through Tuesday before the high retrogrades west in response to incoming low pressure. The highly amplified Asia-Pacific jet will work to keep unsettled weather in the forecast through the extended, starting first on Tuesday night as it dives southward off the west coast. Valley rain and mountain snow will dip into northwestern New Mexico in the evening before becoming more widespread on Wednesday. Meanwhile, westerly winds kick up in anticipation and response to the upper level system starting Tuesday across the high terrain. These winds will peak on Wednesday, especially across the central mts and eastward. Healthy moisture accompanies each round of these disturbances, taking PWATs from an anticipated 0.25" at ABQ on Sunday to a well above average 0.73" by Tuesday night. As the parent trough makes its way eastward on Thursday, multiple pieces of energy break off and attempt to oscillate across the Intermountain West, bringing additional rounds of precip through Friday. The big question is whether we'll see a break in activity as suggested by the GFS or a more constant precipitable assault such as what's detailed by the ECMWF. Regardless, unsettled weather looks to be on the docket potentially even beyond the extended as the active jet continues its course. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Northwest to nly flow aloft with sct high clouds. Weakening sfc high pressure over the ern plains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Dry and warmer weather today through Monday night. Afternoon northwest breezes today and Sunday expected along the Central Highlands where gusts to around 35 mph are possible. A disturbance in northwest flow aloft Sunday night may slow the warming trend on Monday for portions of the eastern plains but highs on Monday will still be near to above normal across northern and central NM. An active and potentially wetter weather pattern commences Tuesday and persists through the end of 2022. Tuesday will be warmer again but will see a few rain and snow showers enter northwest NM. Mountain snow and lower elevation rain and snow is forecast to spread over western and central NM Tuesday night and Wednesday and persist into Thursday, cooling daytime temperatures down to near normal or a few degrees below. Breezy to windy conditions will impact the higher terrain and the eastern plains as well during the midweek period. Another round of precipitation is possible Friday night into Saturday and looks to be preceded by breezy conditions along the central mountain chain and over the eastern plains. Poor ventilation will be widespread today through Tuesday before some improvement next Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 19 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 11 46 15 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 19 44 21 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 48 15 51 20 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 46 19 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 47 14 51 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 46 20 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 25 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 46 21 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 51 22 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 28 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 39 11 42 18 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 43 24 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 46 23 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 10 44 22 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 40 13 44 20 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 9 45 13 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 44 13 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 45 20 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 47 16 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 22 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 20 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 46 27 49 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 26 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 21 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 25 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 24 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 24 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 22 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 49 24 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 24 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 46 25 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 25 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 49 27 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 23 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 24 47 29 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 45 20 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 12 49 22 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 42 20 46 24 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 44 22 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 24 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 46 27 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 42 26 48 31 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 17 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 48 15 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 47 16 54 20 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 46 20 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 43 22 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 43 19 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 42 20 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 44 22 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 44 18 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 37 19 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 38 20 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 19 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 39 17 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 24 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 46 24 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$