004 FXUS61 KRLX 211126 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 626 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather today. A strong system brings mainly rain Thursday, followed by arctic air and snow on Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday amid continued cold. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 620 AM Wednesday... The forecast remains in tact and no changes were needed at this time. As of 120 AM Wednesday... High pressure is weakening, but still in place to give us some more quiet weather with increasing mid to high clouds today along with seasonable temperatures. Unfortunately, the quiet will come to an end late overnight as precipitation chances increase from a disturbance to our south. A quick burst of a wintry mix will make its way and spread from south to north in the morning hours when temperatures will be low enough to promote this mixed bag of precipitation. However, a quick change to all rain, besides the highest elevations, will take place by late morning and going into daytime heating in the next period. Due to the higher elevations being at freezing or below some freezing rain will sneak in for early to mid morning and deposit some ice accumulations of a couple hundreths of an inch along the higher elevations from Wyoming County to Snowshoe with a few tenths of an inch of snow expected in and around Snowshoe. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 303 AM Wednesday... As the deep low pressure system and associated cold front approach from the west, moist and warm advection will bring liquid precipitation across the region on Thursday. Freezing Rain and some ice accumulations can be expected along the eastern facing slopes of our eastern mountains Thursday morning, but eventually will warm up above freezing diminishing the freezing rain threat by Thursday afternoon. Rain showers will continue until the passage of the cold front, expected to arrive to our western sections shortly after midnight (around 06Z) Friday. A very strong temperature gradient within the front will quickly change all rain to burst of snow along the front. The front sweeps across the entire CWA within a 3-5 hour time window Friday morning. A quick 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible across the lowlands posing a hazardous threat to travel. Snow accumulations from 2 to 4 inches can be expected over elevations higher than 2,500 feet by Friday evening. Snow will gradually taper throughout Friday across the lowlands, lingering over the higher elevations through Saturday morning. Extremely cold temperatures behind the front will produce flash freeze conditions over wet roads, sidewalks, bridges and surfaces to produce treacherous travel conditions Friday. Strong gusty winds along and behind the front will add to the hazards, to produce dangerous wind chills across the entire region Friday into the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 303 AM Wednesday... With the exodus of the winter storm system, winds will remain strong into Saturday. Light snow will be possible across the northern sections of WV and our northeast mountains under upslope snow. An additional inch or two will be possible over the higher terrains Saturday. Bitter cold weather will persist on Christmas Eve, with subzero wind chills continuing throughout much of the day for the entire CWA. A gradual warming trend begins Sunday and then continues into the start of the new work week. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 AM Wednesday... High pressure weakening slightly, but still in place to keep us dry for one more day as well as promote VFR until late Thursday morning. Light northeast flow will veer southeasterly by early morning. Mainly just mid to high clouds again until Thursday morning when MVFR CIGs move in with the onset of precipitation which will likely cause some MVFR restrictions to VIS as well. Sites may see a quick changeover from a wintry mix to all rain by late morning on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 12/21/22 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in a wintry mix Thursday morning, and then in rain showers the rest of the day. IFR likely in snow on Friday, including a sudden onset with strong gusty winds and a flash freeze early Friday morning, before dawn. This will be due to a strong arctic front with an abrupt wind shift from south to west- southwest. The snow showers will become more widely scattered from south to north during the rest of the day Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ516-518-520-522>524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JZ