909 FXUS64 KHGX 152326 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 526 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Cool and generally benign weather will remain in the forecast through tomorrow afternoon. As surface high pressure gradually drifts to the east overnight, light and variable winds will give way to a prevailing easterly flow. Given the loss of overnight CAA, should see low temperatures a couple of degrees higher tonight compared to last night, with locations north of the I-10 corridor in the upper 30s with values elsewhere mainly in the 40s. A steadier onshore flow develops during the day tomorrow, allowing for a fairly quick increase in near-surface moisture and warming surface temperatures. This will additionally bring about a fairly widespread increase in cloud cover. However, as this occurs, a reinforcing cold front is expected to push into the area later in the day and quickly return the area to an offshore flow pattern. Because of this, we anticipate a fairly sharp gradient in high temperatures with locations in and south of the Houston Metro area in the mid 60s and areas further north in the low to mid 50s. Exact high temperatures may very depending on the timing of the boundary passage. With the increase in moisture ahead of the front, scattered showers will accompany its passage as it moves through the area which may persist into early Saturday. Overnight low temperatures remain in the upper 30s/low 40s behind the frontal passage. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Saturday shows little in the way of changes from the previous forecast, save for trending drier. Surface high pressure should move in overhead, halting the northern progression of a coastal trough over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers may develop along the coast, though much of this rain will stay well offshore. Northerly flow will continue to usher in cool, dry air across the region, bringing lows for Saturday night in the lower 30s to upper 40s. The aforementioned surface high should drift east into the Mississippi River Valley on Sunday. As it does, the inverted trough will begin to lift north once again, bringing increasing moisture and cloud cover across the region. Rain chances should return by Sunday evening, with coverage peaking Monday afternoon as the inverted trough rides up the Texas coastline, becoming a coastal low. PWATS pick up to around 1.2-1.5" during this time frame, which should provide a decent amount of rainfall across the region when paired with forcing from a midlevel shortwave trough. These showers should begin to diminish Monday night as the coastal low retreats south back into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions continue to dry out on Tuesday as surface high pressure across the Plains sags south, with a weak reinforcing boundary set to reach our area Tuesday night and into Wednesday. The tail end of the long term forecast depict sub-freezing temperatures in store for late next week in advance of the upcoming holidays. GFS and ECMWF ensembles have hinted at this possibility for the last several days with recent runs trending colder. The latest suit of deterministic GFS and ECMWF runs have fallen more in phase, both showing a strong artic cold front pushing through SE Texas around this time frame. Specifics conditions surrounding this FROPA remain uncertain given that this event currently remains beyond day 7 in the official forecast. Though, given the nature of these artic air masses and the growing confidence, a hard freeze could potentially occur in all non-coastal locations. At the very least, guidance hints that conditions may remain dry during this FROPA, such that temperatures and cold remain the only concern. Much of this is subject to change given the uncertainties between different model solutions and their trends between runs. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days as we get a better handle on how these conditions may unfold. Consider what actions you'll need to take to prepare for sub- freezing weather. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 VFR conditions with light and variable winds are expected through much of the period. A weak frontal boundary will move through the terminals Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Clouds will be increasing, reaching SCT MVFR ceilings by late afternoon across most of the inland terminals. Spotty showers will be possible with the FROPA but did not include VCSH in TAFs given low confidence in occurrence and coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Winds should turn onshore tonight, becoming moderate to strong and northeasterly with the arrival of a dry cold front Friday night. Moderate winds and elevated seas should continue through the weekend and into next week as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a coastal trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Additional Caution flags and Advisories will likely be needed for this time frame. Rain chances will also be on the rise through Monday as this system approaches the Texas coastline. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 55 41 53 / 0 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 42 64 44 54 / 0 10 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 53 65 49 56 / 0 10 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...JM MARINE...03